The United Nations warned Tuesday that there is a “very real probability” the coronavirus is circulating in Yemen, the poorest nation in the Arab world.

The U.N.’s humanitarian aid office in Yemen said that “agencies are warning there is now a very real probability that the virus has been circulating undetected and unmitigated within communities.” It has been 17 days since Yemen reported its first case of the virus.

“This increases the likelihood of a surge of cases which may quickly overwhelm health capacities,” the statement continued.

Lise Grande, the U.N.'s Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Yemen, warned that the U.N is anticipating 16 million coronavirus cases, or 55% of the population, in the country.

“The modelers who have looked at Yemen have said that because of three factors — acute levels of vulnerability, some of the lowest levels of immunity across the population and a very fragile and in many places broken health system — unless we’re able to suppress transmission of [COVID-19] it could spread faster more widely and with deadlier consequences than in most other countries,” Grande said in an online event Monday for the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Yemen has been in a civil war since 2015, with 80% of the country’s population relying on humanitarian aid. The Houthis, a group aligned with Iran, have reportedly restricted aid in northern parts of the country, frustrating international aid organizations.

The coronavirus has also spread to other Arab countries impacted by war. Syria announced a lockdown after it detected a case of the virus in March, while Libya has registered at least 61 cases of infection.

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