The COVID-19 pandemic and the statistics reported about it have become strange bedfellows in the past few weeks. Experts pore over them to find a trend that may unveil the path to better prevention methods and even a cure.

One statistical abnormality is India, where only 939 deaths have been recorded and less than 30,000 cases have been logged according to Worldometer, a statistics monitoring website. Is India "bucking the coronavirus trend” or are the statistics faulty?

Here are six points to consider:

  1. India is the world's second most populated country right behind China with an estimated 1.33 billion people, many who live in crowded urban areas where the virus tends to thrive. The statistics should paint a grimmer picture.
  2. Lancet, a medical journal dating to 1823 says the "lockdown is already having the desired effect of flattening the epidemic curve" by keeping infection and deaths in check.
  3. India has a predominantly young population. Older people are more likely to die from COVID-19, but this can be said about almost any medical condition.
  4. Has hot weather helped in diminishing the death rate?
  5. Is there a less virulent mutation of the virus in India?
  6. Are deaths from COVID-19 being undercounted?

The sixth point requires further scrutiny. In 2016 a study called the “Million Death Study” aimed at “capturing essential information on mortality patterns that may influence public health policy” was led by Doctor Prabhat Jha of the University of Toronto.

Of COVID-19 Dr. Jha said that about 80% of deaths in India occur at home where, "A lot of people get some medical attention over time, return and die at home in India.” Home deaths are not reported by the hospitals, so a lot of them may be missed. Counts from people cremated in the open areas of the countryside may not be counted among official funerals and crematorium counts. Only a small percentage of Indian people have the means for a traditional funeral service.

Death counts for all causes have declined in India to the point that some funeral service companies are declaring employee pay cuts. Shruthi Reddy, chief executive officer of Anthyesti Funeral Services, which operates in the eastern city of Kolkata told The Economic Times, "It's very surprising for us. We've declared employee pay cuts if revenue falls below a threshold.” In January they averaged five jobs per day but that has declined to three in April.

One explanation is that the pandemic has kept people off India’s roads and railroads that are notoriously dangerous with more than 150,000 road fatalities recorded in 2018 compared to an estimated 40,000 for the USA that same year.

Indian American physician and oncologist Siddhartha Mukherjee thinks that more testing will provide answers. He told one journalist, "To be totally frank, I don't know, and the world doesn't know the answer" when asked if India was a statistical outlier. He continued saying, "It's a mystery, I'd say, and part of the mystery is we are not doing enough testing. If we tested more then we'd know the answer."

In India, counting death continues to be an inexact process.

Because of a nationwide coronavirus lockdown, the number of funerals in the mystical Indian city of Varanasi has dropped dramatically
Because of a nationwide coronavirus lockdown, the number of funerals in the mystical Indian city of Varanasi has dropped dramatically AFP / Anand SINGH
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