Coronavirus in North Korea: China Locks Down City Near Border

China has banned all non-essential transportation in the city of Shulan in the province of Jilin, located about 350 miles (560km) from the coast of North Korea. Residential compounds and villages have been shut down and students have been ordered to study from home.

This move, according to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), was prompted by a spike in new cases of COVID-19 on Saturday. The 11 cases were the highest since March 11. The source of the new infections is being investigated by local health authorities. Beijing is concerned about what the fallout would be if the pandemic gains a foothold in North Korea, assuming it hasn’t already.

For outsiders, trying to obtain information about North Korea is analogous to an astronomer researching a black hole in deep space. It can’t be seen, but what happens on the border can shed light on what is happening in its center.

The first “star” to be observed in Korea’s “black hole” is Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. Speculation about his health dramatically increased a few weeks ago when he began a 20-day absence from public view. Kim missed one of North Korea’s biggest annual events, the birthday celebration of his grandfather.

The media reports ran the gamut with some saying he was “gravely ill” to those saying he had undergone a minor medical procedure. Other reports claimed he might have been engaged in social distancing to avoid infection of the coronavirus. He re-emerged on May 1 with a visit to a fertilizer plant where some of his guards were spotted wearing protective masks.

Border activity is another place to observe for clues about the secretive state. North Korea closed its borders in January after the coronavirus spread out of Wuhan into other areas of China. But unlike the heavily patrolled southern border, the northern border is quite porous with an active black-market economy and traders crossing back and forth increasing the odds that the coronavirus is making the same journey.

The nearly 900-mile (1,500 km) border runs from the Yellow Sea to the Sea of Japan loosely following the Yalu River and then the Tumen River. It passes China’s Liaoning and Jilin Districts and terminates with a small section of the border with Russia.

Kim Sin-gon is a professor at South Korea University’s Department of Internal Medicine in Seoul. He also leads a group of doctors studying medical systems under a potentially unified Korea. He said, “There were at least hundreds of reported cases near its border with China late last year, which makes me believe that North Korea also saw cases even before it shut down its border with China early this year.”

One “telescope” to view North Korea is the NK News, a South Korean news source that focuses on events in the North. They reported panic buying in Pyongyang, possibly triggered by stricter pandemic control measures. The only news coming directly from North Korea was the release of over 5,400 people from quarantine aimed at showing the world how well Kim Jong-un was handing the health crisis.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and the ruling Communist party are concerned over the consequences of North Korea falling into chaos as its health systems, described as decrepit, get overwhelmed by COVID-19, or if the fragile Kim Jong-un regime topples. Aid sent to North Korea will bolster the image of China as its only “true” ally.

North Korea's government continues to maintain that there has not been a single confirmed case in their country. This may be true because no qualified outsider can get close enough to test anyone to provide any independent confirmation.