Daily Forecast - 18/1/2010

:: Australian Dollar: The Aussie dollar fell below the 93 cent handle in Asia on Friday to enter offshore trade around 0.9275 ahead of key European and U.S economic data releases. Inflation in both regions increased however it was falls in commodity prices, lower than forecast North American consumer sentiment data and a poor profit result from JP Morgan that weighed on risk sentiment. The AUD drifted to a low around 0.9215 and opens this morning at 0.9235 ahead of the TD Securities December Inflation gauge scheduled for today.

- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.9200 to 0.9250

:: Great Britain Pound: The Pound Sterling traded lower in early offshore trade following weaker than expected Euro-Zone Trade data falling to a London low of 1.6265 against the Greenback. Despite an attempt at a rebound U.S investors sold GBP/USD to an eventual bottom of 1.6210 following the release of North American data in the form of CPI, Industrial Production and Uni of Michigan Confidence survey with the U.S dollars appeal as a safe haven currency increasing. This morning sees the GBP exchanging at 1.6255 and 1.7600 against the U.S and Australian dollars respectively.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7535 to 1.7655

:: New Zealand Dollar: The Kiwi traded within a relatively tight band on Friday night bouncing between support at 0.7360 and resistance at 0.7395 on several occasions. U.S and European economic data did little to shift sentiment as the market eyes critical N.Z economic data in the form of CPI and Retail Sales scheduled for release on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. This morning sees the NZD open at 0.7380 and 1.2500 against the U.S and Australian dollars respectively with Dec REINZ House Prices scheduled for release.

- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.7350 to 0.7400

:: Majors: Headline inflation in Europe came in right on expectations increasing by 0.3% during the month of December, up from 0.1% the previous month taking the annual rate to a 10 month high of 0.9%. Despite the CPI increase a lower than forecast Euro-zone Trade Surplus of 4.8 billion Euro weighed on EUR/USD, falling from 1.4425 to an eventual low of 1.4335 in late offshore exchange. U.S CPI data also increased in December however the 0.1% gains were slightly below economist predictions of a 0.2% rise and with the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey also disappointing the market risk sentiment soured late in the session. North American equity markets finished almost 1% in the red with concerns over several stocks during reporting season likely to continue to add some support to the Greenback against the Euro in the very near term. USD/JPY opens this morning slightly down from Friday's Asian close around 91.10 exchanging at 90.80 ahead of today's Japanese data releases in the form of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation.

:: Data Releases: