Dallas Cowboys Playoff Picture 2022: Seeding Scenarios, Possible Wild-Card Opponents

The Dallas Cowboys enter the final week of the regular season as the No. 4 seed in the NFC. With the division title in hand but no chance of getting a first-round bye, Dallas has a pretty good idea regarding where it will finish in the final 2022 NFL playoff picture.

Because the Cowboys are NFC East champions and can’t get the No. 1 seed, Dallas is guaranteed to host a game on Wild-Card Weekend. Scenarios exist for the Cowboys to be seeded No. 2, No. 3 or No. 4, though it’s more than likely that the team’s spot in the playoff picture will remain unchanged.

There are 32 different Week 18 scenarios that don’t involve any games ending in a tie, and 28 of those scenarios end with Dallas maintaining the No. 4 seed, according to NFL Research.

The Green Bay Packers have already clinched the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Los Angeles Rams are the No. 2 seed and a win away from clinching that spot and the NFC West title.

Entering the season finale as the No. 3 seed, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cowboys because of their Week 1 matchup.

The Arizona Cardinals upset the Cowboys last week, giving Arizona the tiebreaker if the Cardinals win the NFC West and finish with the same record as Dallas.

The Cowboys must beat the Philadelphia Eagles on Saturday night to move up in the standings. A loss would lock Dallas into the No. 4 seed before Sunday’s schedule even starts.

Dallas’ path to the No. 2 seed includes losses by the Bucs, Rams and Cardinals. Considering all three teams are favored in Week 18, it’s a highly unlikely scenario.

In order to get the No. 3 seed, the Cowboys need losses from the Rams and Cardinals. Dallas and Los Angeles would finish with the same record, in which case the Cowboys would get the tiebreaker because of their superior conference record.

If Dallas clinches the No. 4 seed, it will host the NFC West’s second-place team (either Los Angeles or Arizona) in the first round of the playoffs. The Cardinals can only win the division if Arizona beats the Seattle Seahawks and L.A. loses to the San Francisco 49ers.

If the Cowboys finish as the No. 3 seed, it means they’ll host the 49ers in a wild-card playoff game. A 49ers victory or a New Orleans Saints loss in Week 18 clinches a postseason berth for San Francisco.

In the unlikely event that Dallas gets the No. 2 seed, they’ll play at home against Philadelphia in the first round. The Cowboys beat the Eagles 44-20 at AT&T Stadium in Week 3.

Even though the team might face Philadelphia twice in as many weeks, Dallas claims it is treating the season finale like any other game. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones told 105.3 The Fan on Tuesday that Dallas plans to “play to win,” indicating that the team won’t rest Dak Prescott or other healthy starters.

"Obviously, the debate over the two ways to go is pretty obvious, but I like to play. In this particular case, we're going to have an extra day's rest between our last game and the first playoff game," Jones said. "I think we're better served by going out there and executing and having our team out there really playing like it's the playoff game we'll be playing the next week."

The Cowboys last made the playoffs in the 2018 season.