Denver Broncos vs. Minnesota Vikings 2019: Prediction Against The Spread, Odds, Betting Preview

No team is favored by more than the Minnesota Vikings in Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season. Despite the large betting line, there are plenty of reasons to believe Minnesota will cover the spread.

The Denver Broncos are 10.5-point road underdogs against the Vikings, according to OddsShark. Sunday’s game total is 40.5

Minnesota is clearly the much better team. The Vikings are 7-3 and in pursuit of a first-round playoff bye. The Broncos are 3-6, putting them in last place in the AFC West and out of the postseason race.

The gap between these two teams should be even more significant at U.S. Bank Stadium. Denver is 1-3 on the road, only beating the Los Angeles Chargers, who have the NFL’s worst home-field advantage. Minnesota is a perfect 4-0 at home, where the Vikings might have more of an advantage than any NFC team.

The Vikings have won all of their home games by double digits. Prior to beating the Washington Redskins 19-9 the last time they played in their own stadium, Minnesota beat their three visiting opponents by an average score of 33-15. That included easy victories over the Oakland Raiders and Philadelphia Eagles, both of whom are above .500 and in the playoff hunt.

Kirk Cousins has a 128.2 passer rating at home. The quarterback has thrown 19 touchdown passes and six interceptions at home since signing with Minnesota. The Vikings have given up 16.9 points per game in their last 10 home games.

Brandon Allen and the Broncos are not going to be the team that upsets the Vikings in Minnesota. The quarterback played as well as Denver could’ve hoped when he led the Broncos to a 24-19 victory over the Cleveland Browns in his first NFL start. The 27-year-old only had to throw for 193 yards. That included a pass to Noah Fant in which the tight end broke three tackles for a 75-yard score.

Even after a rocky stretch, the Vikings rank fifth in scoring defense.

This needs to be a low-scoring game in order for the Broncos to remain competitive. Denver has good overall defensive numbers, but the unit has been less than ordinary against tough competition.

The Green Bay Packers, Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs boasted the highest-scoring offenses on the first half of Denver’s schedule. All three teams beat the Broncos, scoring at least 24 points and posting a 14.3-point average margin of victory.

Minnesota ranks no worse than ninth in total offense, points per game and yards per play. Cousins is third in passer rating and touchdowns. Dalvin Cook leads the NFL in rushing.

Adam Thielen likely won’t play, but his absence has barely slowed down Minnesota’s offense.

Expect the Vikings to win this game going away.

Prediction: Minnesota over Denver, 29-16