NFL Picks 2019: Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, Chicago Bears Among Week 11 Best Bets ATS

The Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs enter Week 11 separated by a half-game in the AFC West. The Pittsburgh Steelers likely need to win as an underdog in order to hold onto their playoff spot. Both the Miami Dolphins and Chicago Bears have a chance to pull off upsets against teams that are in the wild-card hunt.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season. These are the betting odds from the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)

The Steelers have turned around their season with a four-game winning streak that has put them above .500 for the first time in 2019. A win over the Cleveland Browns Thursday night would improve Pittsburgh’s playoff chances and completely end the postseason hopes of their division rivals.

Pittsburgh’s defense is playing like an elite unit, ranking second among AFC teams in both sacks and interceptions. That’s bad news for Baker Mayfield, who has 12 interceptions behind a shaky offensive line. Pittsburgh has given up fewer than 20 points in three of its last four games. Cleveland has scored fewer than 20 points in four of five games. The Browns are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five home games, according to OddsShark. The Steelers are 5-0 against teams that have fewer than seven wins.

Miami Dolphins (+6)

Teams are no longer blowing past Miami the way they did in the early part of the season. The Dolphins can upset the Buffalo Bills at home if a few things go their way.

Miami is on a two-game winning streak with five straight wins against the spread. The Dolphins covered the spread in Buffalo four weeks ago when they took a lead into the fourth quarter. After holding teams led by Sam Darnold and Brian Hoyer to 30 total points, Miami can limit another mediocre quarterback. Josh Allen is completing fewer than 60% of his passes and hasn’t thrown for 270 yards in any game. The Bills rank 25th in points per game. Buffalo’s offense has generated an average of 16.8 points over the last six games. The Bills only beat the Jets and Bengals by a combined five points.

Oakland Raiders (-10.5)

Oakland is a serious playoff contender because they take care of business against teams they are supposed to beat. The Raiders should defeat the Cincinnati Bengals, and do so handily, Sunday afternoon.

In matchups with teams that have five wins or fewer, Oakland is 5-0 straight up and against the spread. The Raiders are 3-0 at home against teams with losing records. Even if the Bengals win the rest of their games, they will finish the season below .500. Cincinnati has lost three straight games by double digits and failed to score more than 17 points in four consecutive contests. Oakland is fifth in yards per play, scoring at least 24 points in six straight games. Reaching 30 points against the NFL’s last-ranked defense shouldn’t be difficult. Ryan Finley and the Bengals might be lucky to score 20 points.

Chicago Bears (+6.5)

After reaching last season’s Super Bowl, the Los Angeles Rams look like they are going to miss the playoffs. The defending NFC champs won’t have an easy time beating the Bears at home Sunday night.

Sean McVay’s offense has fallen way below expectations. Jared Goff has an even worse passer rating than Mitchell Trubisky. An already poor Rams’ offensive line will be without two starters in Week 11. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks has been ruled out. Chicago is fourth in scoring defense, which has kept the Bears competitive in almost every game. In Los Angeles’ last two games against teams that rank better than 28th in scoring defense, the Rams have totaled one offensive touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)

Monday night’s game in Mexico City between Kansas City and the Los Angeles Chargers is one of the best on the Week 11 schedule. With Patrick Mahomes back from a knee injury, L.A. will have trouble keeping up with the Chiefs’ high-powered offense.

Even after missing close to three full games, Mahomes ranks sixth in passing yards and is tied for third with 18 touchdown passes. Kansas City has only scored fewer than 24 points once in Mahomes’ career as a starter. The Chiefs did just give up 35 points to the Titans, but the Chargers can’t seem to put together a consistent offensive performance against anyone. Los Angeles has scored fewer than 27 points in all but one contest. Kansas City has only surrendered 16 total points in two division games. The Chiefs are 11-1 in their last 12 AFC West matchups.

Season Record: 20-27-3