Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots 2016: Prediction, Betting Odds, Preview For NFL Week 15

If the defending Super Bowl champions make their way back to the playoffs, they certainly will have earned it. The Denver Broncos will finish the 2016 regular season with games against the AFC’s top three teams, and it all starts Sunday when they host the New England Patriots.

Denver’s hopes of winning the AFC West likely fell by the wayside with their loss in Week 14 to the Tennessee Titans. Trailing both the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders by two games, the Broncos' best chance of reaching the postseason comes in the form of the second AFC wild-card spot. Denver currently holds the tiebreaker over the Miami Dolphins, who have an 8-5 record, as well.

It won’t be easy for the Broncos to stay ahead of the Dolphins in the standings in Week 15. Miami visits the four-win New York Jets, who have nothing to play for. Denver, on the other hand, plays the Super Bowl favorites who are looking for revenge from last year’s AFC Championship Game.

The Broncos defeated the Patriots 20-18 in January, forcing Tom Brady to have one of the worst games of his career. He completed less than half of his 56 pass attempts, throwing two interceptions as he faced pressure all day. It was the second time last season that New England lost in Denver. The Broncos handed the Patriots a 30-24 overtime loss on Nov. 29, 2015 with Brock Osweiler at quarterback.

This isn’t the same Denver team that won 12 regular-season games a year ago before winning Super Bowl 50. The defense isn’t nearly as good against the run, ranking 29th in yards allowed on the ground. The Titans racked up 180 rushing yards against the Broncos, and Patriots’ running back LeGarrette Blount is already over 1,000 yards on the season.

The Patriots are three-point road favorites, and the over/under is 44. Denver’s pass defense, however, gives them a real chance to upset New England, once again.

The rest of the league allows more than 200 passing yards per game, but teams are averaging just 183 passing yards per contest against Denver. The Broncos limited Marcus Mariota to 88 passing yards and a season-low 45.4 passer rating, joining a long list of good quarterbacks that have struggled when facing Denver. The likes of Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers and Derek Carr have had trouble with the Broncos, and opposing signal callers have combined to post a meager 67.4 passer rating.

Brady should perform better than he did in his last trip to Sports Authority Field, but his final numbers probably won’t be very impressive. He relied on Rob Gronkowski in that game, hooking up with the tight end for eight completions for 144 yards, and Brady’s No. 1 target isn’t available Sunday.

Denver’s offense is better than it was a year ago, and Trevor Siemian could play well against a New England defense that can be vulnerable against the pass. More than half the league has at least the same number of sacks as the Patriots (Denver is second with 35 sacks), and New England has the NFL’s 15th ranked pass defense.

New England is winless in their last three trips to Denver, averaging just 19.3 points per contest. The Patriots are the better team, but the Broncos’ success against Brady and Bill Belichick might continue.

Prediction: Denver over New England, 24-20