Dolphins Playoff Chances: What Are The Odds Miami Will Make The NFL Postseason In 2018?

The Miami Dolphins are one of several AFC teams that are alive in the race for a wild-card spot. The New England Patriots are running away with the division and the Los Angeles Chargers have a firm grasp on the conference’s first wild-card berth, so Miami’s only real chance to reach the postseason is as the No.6 seed.

What are the odds that Miami actually sneaks in the 2019 NFL playoffs? ESPN has actually put a number on it with their Football Power Index, giving the Dolphins just a 1.8 percent chance to keep playing beyond the regular season.

That percentage might seem low for a team that’s just one game out of the postseason, but it’s hard to believe the Dolphins will find their way into the playoff picture.

The Baltimore Ravens enter Week 13 as the AFC’s No.6 seed with a 6-5 record. They own the tiebreaker over the No.7 Indianapolis Colts. Then comes Miami, who, at the moment, owns the tiebreaker over three other 5-6 teams.

Miami’s loss to Indianapolis Sunday didn’t just drop them in the standings. It gave the Colts the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins and essentially a 1.5-game lead over Adam Gase’s squad.

The Dolphins have a good chance to get back to .500 in Week 13. They are 4.5-point favorites at home against the Buffalo Bills, per OddsShark. Miami’s remaining home games will come in Week 14 against the Patriots and in Week 16 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Dolphins will be on the road against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 15 and conclude the season with a trip to Buffalo in Week 17.

Buffalo and Jacksonville have seven combined wins. Maybe Miami can total three wins against those opponents, putting them at eight victories on the season. That almost certainly won’t be enough to get them into the playoffs, meaning they’ll have to get at minimum one victory in their games with the Patriots and Vikings.

There isn’t much reason to be hopeful about Miami’s chances against potential playoff teams. Since starting the season with three straight wins over teams that sit below Miami in the standings, the Dolphins have lost six of eight contests. They did manage to defeat the Chicago Bears with Brock Osweiler under center, though a win against Minnesota or New England seems unlikely.

The Patriots defeated the Dolphins 38-7 at Gillette Stadium in Week 4.

Ryan Tannehill posted a 119.4 passer rating in his return from injury Sunday as the Dolphins nearly beat the Colts. He’s 3-3 as a starter this season.

Miami ranks in the bottom five in both total offense and total defense.