Duterte Flip-Flops On Russia-Ukraine War — Sides with China

One week ago, the Philippines did what's right. It voted in favor of a UN resolution that condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Now, its president, Rodrigo Duterte, wants the country to stay neutral on the war, a position China has taken all along. China abstained from the UN resolution that condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"[For me], we stay neutral," he was quoted as saying by Philstar.com. "But reality tells me that in the end, we'll just have to select which side we would be," he added, perhaps setting the stage for another flip-flop.

Duterte has a long history of flip-flopping on major international issues, including on the dispute between Beijing and Manila over the South China Sea, sometimes siding with Washington and its allies and other times siding with Beijing.

Duterte sided with Washington following an Arbitral Tribunal ruling that China has no historic title over the waters of the South China Sea, sending a stark message to China: stay away from our territory or else face the possibility of a "bloody" confrontation. Then came the first flop: Duterte changed his mind, siding with China in the dispute, and sought a "divorce" from the U.S.

What made Duterte change his mind about the Russia-Ukraine war?

Perhaps he was intimidated by Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement that sanctions against Russia are "akin to war." Perhaps he wants to please Beijing, which has been financing its Build, Build, Build program.

Manila has strong trade ties with Russia, which it may not want to spoil in the current environment. The Philippines has a huge trade deficit with Moscow.

Philippines imports from Russia include oil, metals and materials, and wheat and soybeans. These items have been in short supply recently as the world economy has been recovering from the pandemic-induced recession. And the situation has been made worse since the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out. Both countries are significant producers of grains, and Russia is a substantial producer of oil.

Apparently, the Philippines doesn't want to risk cutting itself off from these supplies and raising the cost of living when 68% of its citizens can hardly afford to buy food, according to a Gallop report.

Philippines' exports to Russia include machinery, electric and electronic equipment, and fruits and nuts. Exports are essential for every country. They help create jobs and earn the foreign currency needed to pay for imports. Especially for countries like the Philippines that have persistent trade deficits and are facing the prospect of a downgrade from credit rating agencies.

While the Philippines doesn't want to risk cutting itself off from Russia, it doesn't want to upset America and its allies either. Thus, the likelihood of yet another flip-flop in the future.