ECB, BoE Decisions In Focus: Economic Events For Feb 4-8

Comparatively few data reports are on the economic calendar for the week.

In the U.S., the focus will be on factory orders, revisions to the durable-goods report, the January’s Institute for Supply Management nonmanufacturing report, and the balance-of-trade report.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, the key euro-zone event will be the European Central Bank interest-rate announcement and related press conference Thursday.

Against the background of better economic prospects and further financial stabilization, economists expect the ECB’s Governing Council to keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.

“We believe the ECB sees its credibility closely tied to its track record of maintaining price stability and is much less inclined to risk an overshoot of inflation above its implicit 2 percent inflation target than other large central banks,” Thomas Harjes, director and chief economist at Barclays in Germany, wrote in a note to clients.

Harjes added: “Nevertheless, President Mario Draghi may again adopt a slightly more dovish tone than last month to convince market participants that monetary conditions will remain loose for a long period of time.”

Meanwhile, economists expect falls in euro-zone retail sales and German industrial production in December to confirm that the region ended last year on a low note.

The Bank of England is also expected to leave its stock of asset purchases unchanged at £375 billion ($589 billion) and its bank rate unchanged at 0.5 percent.

Next week, China will release January inflation and trade data. Other domestic-activity data will be released March 9, averaging the January and February figures to remove the distortions caused by the Chinese New Year holiday period.

Normally, industrial activity levels will slow as factories are closed during the holiday period, while prices and retail sales will likely accelerate on rising holiday consumption. The January and February data series will be distorted on a year-over-year basis due to the different dates of the Chinese New Year: Feb. 10 this year and Jan. 23 last year.

For January, the different timing implies a boost to the year-over-year growth rate for trade, while it will weigh on the year-over-year inflation rate, economists at Barclays noted.

There are scheduled interest-rate policy meetings this week in Australia (Tuesday) and Pakistan (Friday). On the data front, Indonesia’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product figures are due Tuesday.

Below are entries on the economic calendar Feb. 4-8. All listed times are EST.

Monday

9:45 a.m. -- ISM New York index for January.

10 a.m. -- Factory orders likely rose by 2.2 percent in December, following a flat reading in November.

10 a.m. -- Revisions to the December durable-goods report.

Non-U.S.:

Germany -- Chancellor Angela Merkel meets Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.

Euro zone -- December producer price index, or PPI.

Tuesday

8:30 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Board Gov. Elizabeth Duke (Federal Open Market Committee voter) speaks on "Community Banks" before the Southeastern Bank Management and Directors Conference in Duluth, Ga.

10 a.m. -- The ISM nonmanufacturing index has taken a stronger tone than its manufacturing counterpart in recent months, printing 55.7 in December -- a 10-month high. Economists expect the index to show a slight decline to 55.2 in January.

Non-U.S.:

France -- President Francois Hollande speaks at European Parliament.

Romania -- Interest-rate announcement.

Serbia -- Repo rate.

Australia -- Reserve Bank of Australia cash target.

Philippines -- January consumer price index, or CPI.

Switzerland -- December trade balance.

Indonesia -- 2012 annual and 4Q GDP.

Euro zone -- January services PMI, final reading.

Italy -- Preliminary CPI and harmonized index of consumer prices, or HICP, for January.

Wednesday

7 a.m. -- The Mortgage Bankers Association's, or MBA's, mortgage-applications indexes for the week ended Feb. 1.

Non-U.S.:

Poland -- Repo rate.

Czech -- Repo rate.

Germany -- December factory orders.

Japan -- Core machinery orders for December.

Thursday

8 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans (FOMC voter) speaks on the U.S. economy during a live interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box” in Chicago.

8:30 a.m. -- Initial jobless claims likely slipped by 8,000 to 360,000 during the period ended Feb. 2. If this forecast proves correct, the four-week moving average would float down to 348,300 from 352,000.

8:30 a.m. -- Nonfarm business sector productivity likely contracted by 1.2 percent annualized in the fourth quarter after rising a strong 2.9 percent (revised) in the third quarter. Output fell in the 4Q GDP report, while hours rose over the past several months in the employment report. As a result, output per hour worked, which is how productivity is measured, likely contracted. The unit labor cost likely jumped by 3 percent in the last three months of 2012.

9:30 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank Gov. Jeremy Stein (FOMC voter) speaks on "Financial Stability" before the "Research Symposium: Restoring Household Financial Stability After the Great Recession: Why Household Balance Sheets Matter" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in Missouri.

3 p.m. -- Economists look for an increase of $12.5 billion in December consumer credit, primarily driven by federal student loans.

Non-U.S.:

European Union -- EU Summit in Brussels (to Feb. 8).

U.K. -- Pre-appointment hearing at the Treasury Select Committee of incoming Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney.

U.K. -- BoE bank rate decision and asset purchase decision.

Euro zone -- ECB interest-rate announcement and press conference.

Euro zone -- Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem discusses the preparation of Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings.

Euro zone -- ECB Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure speaks at IMFS-HOF Symposium in Frankfurt.

Peru -- Reference rate.

India -- Fiscal Year 12-13 GDP, advance estimate.

France -- December trade balance.

Spain -- December industrial production.

Germany -- December industrial production.

U.K. -- December industrial output and manufacturing output.

Friday

8:30 a.m. -- Economists expect the trade deficit to narrow to $46 billion in December, partly reversing the significant widening in November.

10 a.m. -- Wholesale inventories probably increased by 0.4 percent in December, while wholesale sales likely rose by 0.6 percent.

3:45 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota (FOMC nonvoter) gives an academic talk and slide presentation before the Conference on Extracting and Understanding the Risk Neutral Probability Density from Options Prices hosted by the New York University Stern School of Business.

Non-U.S.:

Italy -- TV debate with former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, Italian Democratic Party leader Pier Luigi Bersani, and Italian P.M. Mario Monti.

China -- New loans and M2 money growth for January.

China -- Imports and exports for January.

China -- January CPI and PPI.

Malaysia -- December exports.

Malaysia -- December industrial production.

Switzerland -- January unemployment rate.

Sweden -- January unemployment rate.

Germany -- December trade balance.

France -- January Banque de France industrial business sentiment.

Italy -- December industrial production.

Sources: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Capital Economics, Barclays, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Nomura, Societe Generale.