Election 2020 Polls: Trump, Biden Tied In Minnesota, Pennsylvania

Democratic challenger Joe Biden has a slight lead President Donald Trump in two separate polls in the swing states of Minnesota and Pennsylvania but by such thin margins they are considered statistically tied.

A poll by the Trafalgar Group in Minnesota this week shows Biden favored by 46.9% of respondents against Trump's 46.5%. Libertarian Party candidate Jo Jorgensen received a surprising 3.7%. A further 2.9% were either undecided or said they’d support someone else.

The Trafalgar Group's polling has been projecting tighter races in key battleground states than more mainstream surveys. Of its 1,141 respondents, 88% were white and 4.5% black. Whites currently comprise 83% of the state's population compared to 6% black.

However, another recent poll in Minnesota from Emerson College also revealed a statistical tie between Biden and Trump. The poll, conducted Aug. 8-10, showed Biden with a 3-point lead over Trump, 50% to 47%. This result was within the survey’s margin of error of 3.6%.

Emerson analysts said only 3% of voters in the state remain undecided, and reflects some interesting statitistics on how Minnesotans plan to vote. Of voters who plan to vote by mail, 91% intend to vote for Biden. Of those who plan to vote in person, 68% intend to vote for Trump.

Trump's approval rating among Minnesota voters remains under water (51% disapprove, 46% approve, 3% neutral). Among independent voters, Trump’s disapproval rating stands at 47% to 45% approval.

A statistical tie also showed-up in a Pennsylvania poll taken Aug. 11-17 by Muhlenberg College-Morning Call. Biden received 49% support among likely voters with Trump close behind at 45%. The poll's margin of error was 5.5%.

Three percent of voters said they intend to vote for neither candidate, while another 3% said they were undecided. Biden, who was born in Scranton, Pa., has consistently led in the Keystone State, which Trump narrowly won in 2016.

Trump’s approval rating remains an issue in Pennsylvania (51% disapprove, 43% approve). A slim majority of 51% say Trump's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has been “poor.” Only 17% say it’s “excellent,” outnumbered by a 3-to-1 margin.

RealClearPolitics has identified Trafalgar Group as a Republican-linked polling firm. Trafalgar's checkered reputation as a polling firm stems from its repeated use of the controversial "social desirability" effect to adjust its poll results. This bias refers to the tendency of some voters to tell the pollster what he thinks the latter wants to hear instead of giving honest answers.

Trafalgar's method compensates for this effect by asking respondents how they plan to vote and also how they think their neighbors might vote. The accuracy of this approach has been criticized time and again.

Last May, FiveThirtyEight gave Trafalgar Group a "C-" rating based on the historical accuracy and methodology of its polls. Emerson received an "A," the highest rating given.