Explainer-China's Efforts To Catch Up In Global Electronic Spying Race

Amid reports that China is expanding its electronic eavesdropping capabilities in Cuba - which Beijing has denied - China's evolving military surveillance network has some way to go to match the sweep and reach of the U.S. and its allies, defence and intelligence analysts say.

WHAT IS A FOREIGN LISTENING POST?

Five defence and intelligence analysts and four diplomats say large-scale military operations, even in peacetime, demand extensive attempts to vacuum up communications and electronic emissions, all part of what is known as signals intelligence (SIGINT).

The targets could be, for example, conversations between military commanders, a ballistic missile communicating with its command centre or microwave exchanges between a satellite and its ground station. All generate information that can be used against adversaries in a conflict.

Even if the communications can't be decoded, tracking the volume and timing of signals can provide vital intelligence, retired military officials say. Radars and jamming equipment also produce electronic signatures that can be captured.

Fibre optic cables and mobile phone networks have complicated SIGINT efforts, but militaries still routinely communicate via radio.

Large militaries operate ships, surveillance aircraft, satellites and sometimes submarines capable of gathering such signals, but land-based stations expand a nation's scope and reach.

The United States and its allies operate a vast global military surveillance network, centred around the listening posts of the Five Eyes grouping of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand and the long-standing U.S. military presence in the Indo-Pacific, including sites in Taiwan, Guam and Diego Garcia, a British territory.

WHY PUT ONE IN CUBA?

The Cuba station is important to the People's Liberation Army for several reasons. It puts the East Coast of the U.S. within range, including military and civilian space launches in Florida and several large army and naval bases.

Cuba's proximity to the equator could make it easier to monitor geostationary military satellites, said one retired military official familiar with such operations.

It could also help China watch the development of SpaceX's Starlink satellite network - a communications tool that Ukrainian forces have used extensively in their conflict with Russia, which Moscow calls a "special operation".

Carl Thayer, a professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy of the Australian National University, said that although PLA surveillance had a long way to go in catching up with the reach of the U.S. and its allies, the Cuba station marked a fresh front in the SIGINT rivalry.

Aside from monitoring capabilities, a large, permanent presence on Cuba "is an important symbol, getting right under the noses of the U.S. and reflecting China's global ambitions", he said.

China's ministry of defence declined to comment.

In 2019, Reuters reported that China's military was running a space monitoring station in Argentina.

WHAT DOES CHINA HAVE ALREADY?

Defence analysts and diplomats tracking China's military modernisation say that Beijing has extensive listening posts on the Chinese mainland and Hainan Island but that its broader offshore operations remain a work in progress.

After reclaiming and fortifying a string of disputed reefs in the South China Sea over the last decade, China built new SIGINT infrastructure reaching deep into Southeast Asia, according to a 2018 study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London (IISS).

China operates its own Beidou system of global navigational satellites and deploys large space tracking ships in the Indian and Pacific Oceans as well as smaller maritime surveillance craft and early warning and surveillance aircraft.

The IISS Military Balance notes China operates 207 satellites, including 86 for SIGINT and early warning operations.

The Pentagon's 2022 report on China's military said the tracking ships are operated by the PLA's expanding Strategic Support Force (SSF) and can follow ballistic missile launches and satellites.

The SSF also operates tracking and command stations in Namibia, Pakistan and Kenya, as well as Argentina, the report notes.

Regional diplomats say that as China builds a global military intelligence network, it lacks a U.S.-style system of alliances and partnerships that can help discreet surveillance efforts.

WHERE ELSE MIGHT CHINA BUILD THEM?

Speaking on Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not specify other countries China was considering for listening posts, but some Western diplomats say they expect Chinese diplomatic pressure for facilities in the South Pacific and across the Indian Ocean.

The Pentagon report lists 14 countries where China "has likely considered" military logistics facilities, including Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Tanzania and Angola.

China's defence ministry declined to comment.

"This trend is only going to grow alongside China's global reach," said Singapore-based defence analyst Alexander Neill. "Wherever China establishes a new military footprint, they will need to establish a new SIGINT capability."