First Wave Of PLA Soldiers Will Take Taiwan Before US Can Intervene, Says Island's Former Security Chief

As China ramps up military pressure on Taiwan, a former security chief and politician in Taiwan warned that the self-ruled democratic island would not be able to defend itself against the onslaught of the Chinese army and the U.S. would fail to intervene before the war is over.

Su Chi, former secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council and a member of the pro-Chinese Kuomintang Party, told a forum in Taipei on Monday that the Taiwanese Army would not be able to fend off a massive attack by the People's Liberation Army.

He added that the first wave of PLA troops deployed to attack Taiwan would likely number around 28,000, reported Asia Times, quoting several articles recently published by Chinese state media.

Su Chi was speaking at a forum called The new geopolitics between the United States, Taiwan, and China, under the Biden administration , organized by Taiwan’s Global Views Monthly.

Su Chi's Kuomintang Party is one of the oldest political parties and maintains a China-friendly stance, which is clearly at odds with the majority opinion on the democratic island. Recently, the Kuomintang Party selected a new leader, Eric Chu Lin-luan, who received a congratulatory message from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Eric's response to the message sparked an uproar on the island.

Su added that the mainland had been able to blockade Taiwan and paralyze the island’s electronic systems since 2018. The PLA could land on Taiwan and the first batch of 20,000 PLA troops would be sent by ships, while 8,000 would be deployed by helicopters or planes, he added.

The politician said that the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait had shifted and Beijing held the higher ground. He warned that the mainland could occupy Taiwan before 2024 and the U.S. would not be able to intervene.

Su's statements were widely quoted by Chinese state media which said a war in the Taiwan Strait would end before the U.S. would intervene. It added that even if the U.S. army did arrive, it would be defeated by China.

Another article published by the China Review News Agency said the U.S. had never promised to fight for Taiwan. It said the Taiwanese government was aiming to boost its supporters’ morale by saying the island had military cooperation with the U.S.

This comes amid reports that the U.S. sees an "urgent" need to bolster defenses in Taiwan amid China's war threat. Ely Ratner, a top Pentagon official, said China is likely preparing to "unify" Taiwan under the People's Republic of China.

Ratner, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, called the threat "real and dangerous," reported The Hill.

"Bolstering Taiwan's defenses is an urgent task," Ratner said. "We are modernizing our capabilities, updating U.S. force posture, and developing new operational concepts," he added.