Global COVID-19 Deaths Projected To Hit 6.3 Million By May 1: IHME

The global death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic could reach 6.3 million by May amid the spread of the Omicron variant worldwide, a new model has suggested.

Based on the current projection, the world may reach 6,333,989 COVID-19 deaths by the start of the month of May. The numbers would drop to 6,320,777 if all eligible vaccine recipients get a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine shots. The figures would fall further to 6,317,980 when 80% of the population follows mask mandates, as per the model.

As of Monday, the global COVID-19 death toll was 5,603,837. This means 730,152 more people will die of the virus between Jan. 24 and May 1. The world is also reporting an average of 194,080 new COVID-19 deaths every 28 days and more than 55,000 deaths weekly, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Despite the grim prediction for the global death toll, the model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts that the number of daily deaths would fall to 410.78 by May. If all fully vaccinated people get a booster dose of the vaccine, the daily deaths would fall to a projected 380.64. If 80% mask usage is adopted across all countries, the model suggests that the daily deaths could fall to 380.11.

In the United States, COVID-19 deaths are expected to reach 889,458 by May 1, which would mean 21,038 additional deaths over the next month. The U.S. currently has a death toll of 868,420.

The number of daily new cases in the country is expected to fall to 26,201. Currently, the country is reporting an average of 663,908 new infections daily, an analysis by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed.

The model comes after Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious disease expert in the U.S., on Sunday said that he was optimistic that the Omicron wave was peaking nationally and that the country would see a turnaround in the coming months.

“There are still some states in the Southern states and Western states that continue to go up. But if the pattern follows the trend that we’re seeing in other places such as the Northeast, I believe that you will start to see a turnaround throughout the entire country,” he said.