Kamala Harris's Pennsylvania huddle mirrors President Joe Biden's week-long preparation at Camp David
In photo: Kamala Harris's Pennsylvania huddle. AFP

KEY POINTS

  • Harris is leading Trump by 5 percentage points, as of Wednesday night
  • Pennsylvania is deemed by some as the top state to watch out for among other swing states
  • Harris is also narrowly ahead of Trump in the Keystone State in polls outside Polymarket

In what could be one of the most telling instances on decentralized market prediction platform Polymarket over the past few weeks, Vice President Kamala Harris has flipped Pennsylvania. She is now leading Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in four of six battleground states being tracked by the platform.

Some three weeks ago, Trump was on the lead in four swing states, but after the first debate between the rival candidates, the numbers started to sway in favor of the Democratic presidential nominee.

Harris Sits on 5-Point Lead

On Wednesday night, Harris commanded a five-point lead over Trump, at 52% to 47%, marking a significant transition in the views of cryptocurrency bettors regarding the presidential race.

Polymarket presidential Election 2024 as of Sept 18 2024 night
Kamala Harris is now ahead of Trump in four battleground states. Polymarket

The race was quite tight in recent weeks, but months ago, Trump was always in the lead. He had a comfortable lead over President Joe Biden before the latter withdrew his re-election bid, and it took Harris weeks to catch up.

However, the tides are changing, and it appears a growing number of crypto traders on Polymarket are leaning on the Democratic frontrunner even if Trump has been the vocal supporter of crypto.

Harris Takes Pennsylvania and Nevada

Before taking the lead over Trump in Pennsylvania and Nevada – key battleground states that could make or break the November elections – Harris already had a comfortable two-digit lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.

By Wednesday night, Harris took Nevada from the GOP frontrunner (51% to 49%). More critically, the former prosecutor is now ahead of Trump by four percentage points in Pennsylvania (52% to 48%).

Polymarket swing states Sept 18 2024 night
Kamala Harris has flipped Nevada and Pennsylvania, with the race much closer in Nevada. She's also the favorite on Polymarket's Popular Vote Winner event contract. Polymarket

Polymarket figures align slightly with other polls that have Harris leading Trump by 1.9% in Pennsylvania. The Keystone State is a crucial battleground due to its unpredictability over the past decade. Among all other swing states, TIME ranks Pennsylvania as "the biggest prize on the board" in the 2024 elections.

While Harris is now leading in four battleground states, Trump maintained comfortable leads in Arizona (62% to 38%) and Georgia (58% to 42%) Wednesday night.

On the other hand, a staggering number of bets have been placed on Harris winning the popular vote over Trump (77% to 22%).

Why are Trump's Numbers Down?

Some experts and observers have shared their thoughts on what could have affected the dramatic shift in numbers.

For Tolou Capital founder Spencer Hakimian, the U.S. central bank's interest rate cuts this week "did her wonders." The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point Wednesday, triggering a downward spiral in oil prices.

One X user suggested that it could have been Democratic backers "investing heavy" on the bets to pump Harris' numbers.

While the exact reason for Harris' ascent may be difficult to pinpoint at this time in the race, it can be worth noting that the launch of the Trump brothers' DeFi project this week drew mixed reactions from the crypto community.

Some embraced the Trump family's venture into the digital assets space, but others questioned why details about World Liberty Financial remain scant more than a month since it was first announced. Many Bitcoiners also believe the Trumps should focus only on Bitcoin instead of the broader crypto industry.

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