Inflation, Recession Fears Raise Consumer Caution Around Holiday Shopping To Nine-Year High: Study

Rising prices and the looming recession have put a damper on holiday spending this year.

A report from CNBC's All-America Economic Survey found that 41% of Americans plan to spend less this year than in years past, making this the most cautious holiday season since 2013.

The CNBC survey interviewed 801 people from various backgrounds across the country. The survey took place between Nov. 26-30 and has a margin of error of +/-3.5%.

The survey found that the average gift spending estimate fell by 10% from the previous year to $907. In 2021, the spending estimate was $1,004. A third of people surveyed said they are spending less this year due to rising inflation costs, and 40% cited the economy and recession as motivators to save.

"There's this economic malaise that we've seen getting more significant quarter over quarter for a year and a half now [that] really comes through pretty strongly in people's attitudes about why they do not intend to spend as much this year,″ Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the survey, told CNBC.

The survey also found 65% believe the U.S. is either already in or heading toward a recession, and only 14% thought the economy was in a good place. In addition, 44% of those polled said they believe the economy will worsen over the next year, the fourth-highest reading in the survey's 15-year history, according to CNBC.

Despite high Black Friday and Cyber Monday showings, the survey sheds light on growing consumer fears of an unstable and expensive economy. In October, consulting firm Deloitte reported that Americans expected to spend the same amount during the holidays this year as last year but that their money would not go as far.

In November, Morgan Stanley's holiday shopping survey found many Americans planned to wait to buy their holiday gifts to cash in on last-minute deals and also found that big ticket items, like luxury goods and electronics, are not as popular this year.

"Combined, 63% of Americans are pessimistic about the current state and the future prospects for the economy,″ Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollster for the survey, told CNBC. "This has been over 60% all year and over 50% since July 2021."

This holiday season is still shaping up to be profitable. Adobe Analytics found Black Friday shopping this year was up from years past, both in stores and online. Consumers reportedly spent $9.12 billion online during Black Friday, but inflation did contribute to the rise in revenue.