KEY POINTS

  • Subzero temperaturs and icy road conditions in Iowa after a wave of Arctic storms
  • Caucuses started at 8 p.m. ET
  • Early results have already started trickling in
  • Make-or-break moment for DeSantis, Haley as they fight for second spot
Live Updates
A supporter of former US President and 2024 presidential hopeful Donald Trump carries a baby and a Trump placard as she braves the below zero temperatures to attend a rally in Indianola, Iowa, on January 14, 2024
AFP

(This live update has now ended. For a full story, please go to Trump Passes Major US Election Test With Win In Iowa )

Major news outlets projected former President Donald Trump as the winner of the Iowa caucuses Monday. The calls came less than an hour after the caucuses started at 8 p.m. ET, showing Trump remains a darling of GOP voters despite the barrage of news reports painting him as a threat to American democracy.

Trump held a comfortable lead over his rivals going into the caucuses, seen as a make-or-break moment for his chief rivals.

This is a big first step for Trump in his quest for a second term at the White House, showing his momentum has not been slowed by the many court cases brought against him by Democratic prosecutors across the country. Trump could square off with President Joe Biden, who is widely expected to be the Democratic Party's nominee.

But both candidates are also facing questions about their age, adding another layer of uncertainty over a possible rematch between them.

Biden is 81 and polls have indicated that more than 70% of voters have concerns about his age. Trump is 77.

The calls by the Associated Press, NBC News and CNN, among others, came less than an hour into the caucuses, which are being held in icy cold conditions.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley are battling for the second place and an opportunity to project themselves as viable alternatives to Trump. Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who did not qualify for last week's GOP debate, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Texas pastor Ryan Binkley are also competing.

Five thirty eight's average of polls for Iowa shows Trump at 52.7%, followed by Haley at a distant 18.7%, DeSantis at 15.8% and Ramaswamy at 6.4% as of Monday.

Trump is also a clear frontrunner for the ticket nationally, with 62.8% in Five thirty eight's national average of polls, followed by Haley at 11.9% and DeSantis at 11.8%. Ramaswamy is at 4%.

Unlike a primary where voters cast their ballots for the candidates vying for the nomination, a caucus requires votes to physically attend specific meetings and therefore see a lower voter turnout. But this time Arctic storms that have swept across the country has made swathes of the state impassable -- visibility is low and the storms have dumped about 20 inches of snow.

DeSantis and Haley, who postponed Friday events amid the frigid conditions, held in-person events amid the subzero temperatures Monday. The bitter cold is a big problem for DeSantis and Haley, who have to build up enough momentum before the primay in New Hampshire next week.

Democrats are also holding a caucus Monday, but have opted for voters to choose their candidate by mail-in ballot. Those results will be released on Super Tuesday on March 5.

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The pugilist in Trump was evident as the calls came. The former president took at swing at President Biden as he addressed hundreds of supporters at a caucus site at the Horizon Events Center in Clive, Iowa: "He is totally destroying our country." The crowd cheered.

On Tuesday, Trump will fly to New Hampshire, where he will hold a rally in the evening.

In contrast, Haley offered a more timid message: "If you want to move forward with no more vendettas, if you want to move forward with a sense of hope, join us in this caucus," she said.

Interestingly, NBC News' entrance poll of Iowa GOP caucusgoers found that 66% think Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election, reflecting the deep polarization in American politics. NBC said 68% of those voters are backing Trump.

Donald Trump Jr. posted on X. "Well, that was fast. Thank you Iowa. Now let's end this nonsense and go after the insanity that is today's Democrat party. Enough is enough! It's time to put America first for a change."

After Iowa the action shifts to New Hampshire, which is holding its first-in-the-nation primary contest Jan. 23.

The Associated Press said its projection of Trump as the winner was based on initial results from eight counties, which showed "Trump with far more than half of the total votes counted as of 8:31 pm. ET, with the rest of the field trailing far behind."

The AP said "these counties include rural areas that are demographically and politically similar to a large number of counties that have yet to report."

CNN has also projected a Trump win Iowa's Republican caucuses.

NBC News has already projected that Trump is the winner of the 2024 Iowa caucuses. The first results beginning to trickle in already show Trump is ahead.

The bitter weather, expected to impact turnout for the caucuses, may have an impact on the results too.

Iowa GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann said it "might be midnight that we have every single piece of data come in." said Kaufmann.

"Certainly I would rather get those results later than have anybody hurry up beyond where they feel comfortable," he said.

Kaufmann said some sites had to change locations due to the weather and road conditions, but there were no closures.

The Iowa caucuses are a make-or-break moment for Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis: the first test for both to project themselves as an alternative to Trump, who is comfortably ahead in polls.

Frontrunner Donald Trump spent the day in the Des Moines hotel, holding holding tele-rallies and doing radio interviews, reports said citing sources. He left the hotel only for lunch even as he urged his supporters to caucus for him in the bitter cold.

Trump posted in his Truth Social platform, thanking Florida senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott for their endorsements, using the opportunity to take a dig at Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Trump