Justin Trudeau Could Lose 2019 Canada Elections, New Poll Suggests

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and fellow Liberals are fast losing popular support and may lose the next Federal election set for this year.

According to a new Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News, Trudeau may lose polls and conservatives will storm back to power. The poll was conducted on 1,000 Canadians between March 1 and March 4.

The poll said if elections were held tomorrow, Trudeau would receive only 31 percent of the popular vote, down 3 points since last two weeks. The winner could be Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer who won 40 percent.

Trudeau's popularity has taken a beating since the resignation of Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould who alleged undue interference from the PM’s office and obstructed the prosecution of Canadian engineering firm SNC Lavalin that allegedly bribed Libyan government for contracts.

Stark trends in Ontario

Commenting on the poll results, Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs said this is the first time a surge of Conservative Party is visible as if they could potentially form the government. Liberals are losing ground is also very apparent.

“The question is have they hit bottom yet?” Bricker asked.

The national trends were conspicuous in Canada’s largest province, Ontario, where Conservatives showed a 40 percent sweep against the Liberals’ 31 percent.

In the vote-rich 905 Region around Toronto, Conservatives or Tories have established a critical lead of 20 points.

“With that kind of lead, they’re set to sweep the 905. If they sweep the 905, they probably win the election,” Bricker added.

In Quebec too, Canada’s second-most populous province, Liberals are losing favor. They lost the earlier lead by half in 14 days and now stand at 35 Vs 29 points with Conservatives.

Damage from SNC Lavalin scandal

What eroded the support base of Trudeau and Liberals is the Prime Minister’s alleged role in the SNC-Lavalin affair. The justice minister resignation openly put Trudeau on the dock.

Nearly 55 percent of Canadians said the matter would influence their voting decisions in the 2019 federal election.

The resignation of the former attorney general and minister Jody Wilson-Raybould cast aspersions on the integrity of the Prime Minister. Raybould testified before a Parliamentary panel that 11 officials from the Prime Minister's Office inappropriately pressured her to cancel a decision to prosecute SNC-Lavalin on bribery charges relating to contracts in Libya.

“There’s no understanding how fundamentally this scandal has shaken the Liberal coalition to the core,” added Bricker.

The poll showed a majority of Canadians are siding with Jody Wilson-Raybould over Trudeau.

Nearly 69 percent of respondents believe Wilson-Raybould’s version of political interference by the Prime Minister’s Office to coerce her from acting against SNC-Lavalin.

Interestingly, one-fourth of Liberal voters wanted Trudeau to step down. Most of his party voters also wanted SNC-Lavalin scandal probed and RCMP to fix erring politicians and bureaucrats.

One more resignation

Meanwhile, Trudeau’s cabinet erupted in public support to the embattled prime minister ahead of some parliamentary hearings relating to the SNC Lavalin allegations.

This came close on the heels of the resignation of Jane Philpott, the president of the cabinet’s Treasury Board testimony on Monday.

Philpott in her resignation reiterated the allegations of Jody Wilson-Raybould that Trudeau and other senior figures pressured Raybould from prosecuting SNC Lavalin.

Expressing support to Trudeau the 33 ministers held a campaign-style rally on Monday night showing solidarity to the government’s climate change policy.