Kansas City Chiefs vs. LA Chargers 2019: Prediction Against The Spread, Odds For Monday Night Game

Can Patrick Mahomes play well enough to overcome one of the NFL’s worst defenses? The answer to that question will determine the winner of “Monday Night Football” in Week 11.

The Kansas City Chiefs are four-point favorites over the Los Angeles Chargers in Mexico City, according to the latest betting line at OddsShark. The total is 52.

It’s no surprise that Monday’s game is projected to be the week’s highest-scoring affair. With the reigning MVP back under center, Kansas City has arguably the most explosive offense in football. Few teams are worse on the other side of the ball, which is why the Chiefs are only two games ahead of the Chargers atop the AFC West.

Kansas City ranks second in yards per play and third in total yards. Only four teams are scoring more points per game than the Chiefs, even after Matt Moore started two games as Mahomes recovered from a knee injury.

The Chiefs rank 22nd in total defense. After falling to the Tennessee Titans 35-32 in Week 10, Kansas City has allowed 89 total points in their last three games.

The Chargers have a top-eight scoring defense and total defense. Los Angeles is below .500 because they have trouble getting the ball into the end zone. L.A. ranks 12th in yards per play, 16th in yards per game and 21st in points per game.

Los Angeles’ defense did slow down one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks in their last win. The Chargers defeated Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers 26-11 in Week 9.

It’s unlikely that Los Angeles will have a similar performance against Kansas City. The Chiefs have put up at least 24 points in nine of their 10 contests, only failing to do so when the Indianapolis Colts dominated the time of possession with their rushing attack. It marked the only time in Mahomes’ career as a starter that Kansas City didn’t score 24 points.

The Chargers are 26th in rushing. They won’t be able to follow the Colts’ formula.

Los Angeles has only scored more than 26 points once in regulation, doing so against the Miami Dolphins’ 31st ranked scoring defense. Philip Rivers has not looked like the quarterback that’s made three straight Pro Bowl appearances, throwing 14 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions in 2019.

Rivers hasn’t received very good protection from a poor offensive line. The Oakland Raiders have one of the league’s worst pass rushes, but they were able to record five sacks in last week’s win over Los Angeles. Maybe Kansas City’s pass rush will have one of its best games when they face the Chargers.

Kansas City has sprinkled in a couple of good defensive performances this season. The Chiefs held the Denver Broncos to six points when Mahomes left the game early with a knee injury. Oakland has one of the NFL’s best offenses, and they only scored 10 points against Kansas City at home in Week 2.

Last week’s game was one that the Chiefs should have never lost. Kansas City blew a two-score lead in the final half of the fourth quarter. The Titans blocked a last-second field goal to escape with an upset.

Mahomes completed 72 percent of his passes for 446 yards and three touchdowns in his return. He posted a 122.2 passer rating with six touchdown passes and no interceptions against the Chargers in 2018.

If Kansas City’s quarterback plays close to that well Monday night, Los Angeles stands little chance to win.

Prediction: Kansas City over Los Angeles, 28-20