Massive Russian Naval Fleet Concentrated Near Odessa Leaves The West Puzzled: Tactic or Diversion?

For over a week, Russia has arrayed its warship in the Black Sea, triggering speculations that it would finally launch a beach landing at the port city of Odessa.

But, leaving military watchers and the West perplexed, there has been no such move yet. While the Pentagon believes that the ships were preparing for some sort of ground assault on Odessa, their original intention remains a mystery to everyone, except of course Kremlin.

"Is it the prelude to an assault on Odessa? Is it a diversionary tactic to sort of hold and fix Ukrainian troops in the south so that they can’t come to the relief of their comrades in Mariupol and Kyiv? It’s difficult to know," USNI News quoted Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby.

However, it seems unlikely that Odessa is under an imminent threat of an amphibious assault, said reports. This is despite an earlier foregone conclusion that the port city will face an amphibious assault after Mariupol, as confirmed by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

But, why hasn't the assault happened ever after 26 days? According to military analyst Tayfun Ozberk, such an assault would be costly – in terms of lives – for the Russians.

"The performance of Russian forces in terms of command and control and logistical support did not seem bright so far. At this C2 and logistics level, the outcome of an amphibious operation can be disastrous for Russian amphibious forces. In addition, Russian landing ships are at sea for four weeks, which means that the infantry battalions that are supposed to conduct landing operations are not in good shape," Ozberk wrote in an article in Naval News.

He added that this could also be a tactic called the "amphibious demonstration." According to Ozberk, Russia creates the perception that there is a threat in this region by constantly performing amphibious demonstrations off Odessa.

He added that not only will this keep soldiers in Odessa on constant alert, but also troops waiting to defend the Odessa coastline from supporting forces fighting in other places.

The USNI report also quoted senior defense personnel who think Russia may be using the ships to bombard Odessa.

Meanwhile, the Russian forces reportedly began shelling residential areas on the outskirts of Odessa on Monday, damaging buildings in the city. Though no casualties were reported, footage from Odessa showed the aftermath of the attack.

"These are residential buildings where peaceful people live,” Gennadiy Trukhanov, mayor of Odessa, said in a statement after the strikes. “We will not leave Odesa and we will fight for our city."