New England Patriots Prediction: AFC East Champs Will Get No.2 Seed, Playoff Bye With Week 17 Win

Week 17 can go a number of different ways for the New England Patriots. The defending AFC champs are still alive for the No.1 seed and home-field advantage until the Super Bowl, but there’s also a scenario in which they fall to as low as the No.4 seed.

Where are the Patriots most likely to end up in the final 2018 NFL playoff picture?

Having clinched the AFC East in Week 16, New England is the only team in the conference that’s won their division. The Patriots enter the season finale as the No.2 seed in the AFC, trailing the No.1 seed Kansas City Chiefs by a game in the standings.

The Los Angeles Chargers have one more win than New England and are fighting for the top seed in the conference. The Houston Texans can get the No.2 seed or even the No.1 seed if everything breaks their way Sunday. The Baltimore Ravens can finish as high as the No.2 seed.

When it comes to securing a bye in the first round of the playoffs, the Patriots control their own destiny. Avoiding a matchup on Wild-Card Weekend for an eighth straight year shouldn’t be much of a problem for New England, even during a season in which they’ve looked very beatable.

All the Patriots have to do to make sure they finish no worse than second in the AFC standings is beat the New York Jets at home. New England is one of the biggest favorites on the schedule, laying 13.5 points, according to the betting line at OddsShark.

New York put up a fight against New England when the Patriots won 27-13 at MetLife Stadium in Week 12. The Jets haven’t lost a game by more than a touchdown since then, and Sam Darnold has played very well.

It might not be pretty, but the Patriots should be able to take care of business at home. New England remains dominant at Gillette Stadium, where they just beat the Buffalo Bills 24-12. The Patriots are the NFL’s only team that’s undefeated at home. Kansas City is the only team that visited New England and lost by less than a touchdown.

A lot has been made about Tom Brady’s less than impressive numbers in the last two games. It was only a few weeks ago that the quarterback put together a string of three straight triple-digit passer ratings. The five-time Super Bowl winner should bounce back when facing a Jets’ team that ranks 26th against the pass. New York has given up an average of 31.7 points over the last six games.

The Jets have one victory since starting the season at 3-3. New York hasn't won in New England since beating the Patriots in the 2011 Divisional Playoffs.

If New England closes out the season with a win, they’ll be looking for some help in the late-afternoon games. The Patriots need losses from both the Chiefs and Chargers to land the No.1 seed.

Maybe the Chargers will have trouble in Denver. The Broncos have one of the NFL’s best home-field advantages, and they’ve already beaten Los Angeles once this season.

Asking the Chiefs to lose in Week 17 is another story. They’ll be hosting the Oakland Raiders, who are tied with the Jets for the worst record in the conference. Oakland’s only road win came against the Arizona Cardinals, who are headed for the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

A win for Kansas City would give the Chiefs the AFC West title and the No. 1 seed. That would make L.A. the first wild-card team and the No.5 seed.

There are a bunch of different possible scenarios for the AFC playoff picture, but the top of the standings should remain unchanged when Week 17 comes to an end.