New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens 2016: Prediction, Betting Odds For Week 14 Monday Night Football

The New England Patriots became the AFC’s No. 1 seed on Thursday night with the Oakland Raiders’ loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, but it won’t be easy for them to maintain the conference’s best record. New England hosts the Baltimore Ravens on “Monday Night Football” in one of Week 14’s best matchups.

The Patriots are seven-point favorites at home (over/under of 45.5), though the betting odds don’t accurately reflect the challenge that awaits the Super Bowl favorites. Baltimore historically gives New England a tougher time than most opponents, and Monday should be no different.

Both teams sit atop their respective divisions heading into the weekend. New England can clinch the AFC East with a win and a loss by the Miami Dolphins. Baltimore is tied for first place in the AFC North with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and a win over their rivals in Week 9 currently gives them the tiebreaker.

The two teams have put themselves in playoff contention in different ways. The Patriots are sixth in points scored, and only the Atlanta Falcons score more than New England when Tom Brady is under center. The Ravens rank first overall in total defense, and they’ve allowed fewer points than any AFC team.

Statistically, New England’s defense isn’t far behind that of Baltimore. The Patriots are ninth in total yards allowed, and they’ve surrendered exactly the same amount of points as the Ravens. New England’s defense, however, isn’t as good as the numbers might suggest because of the competition they’ve faced.

The Patriots have only faced one top-19 scoring team at full strength (they played the Pittsburgh Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger missed the game with an injury), allowing the Buffalo Bills’ No. 9 scoring offense to total 44 points in two games. When facing Seattle and Miami, who rank 20th and 22nd in scoring, respectively, New England’s defense was exposed, giving up an average of 27.5 points. Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson combined to throw for 735 yards against the Patriots.

Baltimore’s defense is most certainly the real deal. The Ravens held the high-powered offenses of Washington and Pittsburgh to 16 points and 14 points, respectively. Baltimore allowed 28 points to the Raiders, but they limited Oakland to just 261 yards of total offense, and the Raiders found their way into the end zone by controlling field position.

The Ravens’ worst defensive performance came in their visit to Dallas. The Cowboys and their No. 4 scoring offense put up 27 points in their victory against Baltimore. The Patriots can have a similar performance if they’re firing on all cylinders, but the recent injury to Rob Gronkowski will make that difficult.

It’s hard to underestimate Gronkowski’s importance to New England’s offense, and he might be the No. 1 weapon in the NFL when healthy. During a season in which Brady is playing arguably the best football of his career, the quarterback failed to post a passer rating of better than 93.5 in the last two games without his tight end. Looking at the numbers in recent seasons, that doesn’t appear to be an aberration, and it’s a trend that will likely continue on Sunday against an elite defense.

Heading into last week’s game against the Los Angeles Rams, Brady had played 17 games without Gronkowski since 2011. In those contests, Brady has registered an unimpressive 82.4 passer rating, completing just 57.3 percent of his passes, via USA Today. When Gronkowski has been in the lineup over the last six seasons, the quarterback has thrown for a 103.5 passer rating and a 65.3 completion percentage.

On Monday, Brady and the Patriots take on a team that’s allowed 14 or fewer points in four of their last five games. Seattle upset the Patriots in New England in prime-time a few weeks ago with one of the league’s best defenses, and Baltimore has a real chance to do the same.

Prediction: Baltimore over New England, 24-20