New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins 2016: Prediction, Betting Odds, Preview For NFL Week 17

The New England Patriots are far and away the favorites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LI, but they still have something to play for in Week 17 of the 2016 NFL season. New England visits the Miami Dolphins, hoping to secure the No. 1 seed in the conference.

While many playoff teams will be resting their starters Sunday, the Patriots will be doing no such thing. Securing home-field advantage throughout the postseason would go a long way in helping Bill Belichick and Tom Brady win their fifth title with New England. Considering Miami has little to play for, winning might not be much of an issue for the Patriots.

Miami head coach Adam Gase says the team will play its starters against their AFC East rivals, but that could change if the Dolphins fall behind early. The Dolphins are locked into one of the two AFC wild-card spots and guaranteed to go on the road in the first round of the playoffs. The team has already lost quarterback Ryan Tannehill to a season-ending injury, and they might not want to risk losing another key player.

New England will be willing to risk injuries, considering how much home-field advantage could mean to their Super Bowl hopes. The Patriots were ousted in the AFC Championship Game on the road in two of the last three years, and New England is as dominant at home as any other NFL team. Since 2009, New England has never gone worse than 6-2 at Gillette Stadium in the regular season.

The Patriots will clinch the No.1 seed with a win or a loss by the Oakland Raiders, but the AFC West leaders don’t play until later in the afternoon. Because there’s so much on the line for New England, they are 9.5-point favorites in Miami.

In Week 2, the Patriots defeated the Dolphins 31-24 in New England, but the final score makes the game appear closer than it actually was. The Patriots jumped out to a 31-3 lead, but they let up when third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett was forced to play in the second half. Now that Tom Brady will go up against Miami’s backup quarterback, it could be a long day for the Dolphins.

Matt Moore has been as good as the Dolphins could have hoped for in place of Tannehill, throwing six touchdown passes and two interceptions in two starts. His success, however, has come against the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, who aren’t among the NFL’s best defensive teams. It could be a different story for Moore against the New England Patriots, who seemingly get better on defense every week.

Surrendering 17 points or fewer in five of the last six games, the Patriots rank first in scoring defense. Jay Ajayi rushed for 206 yards last week when Moore completed just over 50 percent of his passes, but the running back isn’t likely to play nearly as well in the season finale. Ajayi was held to 14 yards on five carries against New England earlier this year, and only two teams have allowed fewer rushing yards than the Patriots.

The Patriots won’t be able to completely shut down the Dolphins, considering Miami is averaging 31.3 points during their three-game winning streak. New England, however, shouldn’t have trouble finding the end zone, potentially pushing the final score well past the over/under of 44.5.

Since returning from his suspension, Brady has been as good as any quarterback in the NFL. He’s posted a passer rating of at least 114.6 in seven of his 11 starts, and New England has scored at least 30 points in six of those contests.

Brady isn’t doing it all on his own, and the Patriots have one of their best rushing attacks in years. They rank eighth in yards on the ground, and LeGarrette Blount leads the league with 17 rushing touchdowns.

New England might cruise to the Super Bowl in 2017, and it all begins with their first victory of the New Year in Miami.

Prediction: New England over Miami, 34-20