New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons 2019: Prediction Against The Spread, Thanksgiving Odds

The Atlanta Falcons pulled off the biggest upset of the NFL season when they defeated the New Orleans Saints 26-9 in the Superdome on Nov. 10. The NFC South’s top team has a chance to get some revenge on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 13.

The 2019 Thanksgiving schedule will conclude the same way it did a year ago. The Saints beat the Falcons by two touchdowns on the holiday in 2018. New Orleans is on the road this time, but the result might not be much different.

According to the latest betting line at OddsShark, the Saints are seven-point favorites in Atlanta. The total is 49.

Since losing to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, New Orleans’ only defeat was that Week 10 matchup against Atlanta. The Falcons blew out the Saints and Carolina Panthers in consecutive weeks, beating their division rivals by 43 combined points.

Atlanta couldn’t sustain that level of play Sunday when they were beaten by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35-22. The Falcons are 3-8 this season for a reason. Their performance in New Orleans was likely an outlier that won’t be repeated when they host the Saints.

The Falcons put Drew Brees under constant pressure in Week 10, sacking the quarterback six times. Over 60% of Atlanta’s sacks on the entire season came in Week 10 and Week 11. The team’s pass rush went back to being nonexistent in Week 12 when Jameis Winston wasn’t hit for a loss once.

Even with a banged-up offensive line, the Saints should be able to move the ball with relative ease. The Falcons have surrendered at least 20 points in nine of their 11 games. Seven of Atlanta’s opponents have scored at least 27 points. New Orleans has scored more than 30 points in four of its last five contests.

Brees completed 76% of his passes for seven touchdowns and one interception against the Falcons in 2018. Only the Miami Dolphins have fewer takeaways than Atlanta in 2019.

Cornerback Marshon Lattimore could return after missing Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. Julio Jones didn’t practice Monday with an injured shoulder.

New Orleans has its eyes on earning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Five of the Saints’ last six victories have come by seven points or more. New Orleans is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine games and 6-3 against the spread in its last nine meetings with Atlanta.

Atlanta is out of contention with nothing to play for. The Falcons could fold if the Saints begin to pull away at any point Thursday night.

Prediction: New Orleans over Atlanta, 33-20