New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: 2018 ALDS Prediction, Betting Odds For MLB Playoff Series

The 2018 ALDS between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox is a series that's been a long time coming. It was 14 years ago that MLB’s greatest rivalry was last put on display in the postseason, and it’ll be the first time that the two teams are meeting in the division series.

Their last playoff series was certainly a memorable one. Boston became the only team in baseball history to overcome a 3-0 series deficit by defeating New York in the 2004 ALCS, eventually winning their first World Series in 86 years and breaking the “curse” that had plagued the franchise for nearly a century.

The 2003 ALCS saw the Yankees break the hearts of Red Sox fans when Aaron Boone’s home run in the bottom of the 11th inning of Game 7 sent the Bronx Bombers to the World Series. When the rivals went head-to-head in the playoffs for the first time in 1999, New York eliminated Boston in five games before winning the second of three straight championships.

This year’s matchup is completely different than any of the previous playoff series between the Yankees and Red Sox. No longer is it the big, bad Yankees against the team that can never beat them when it counts the most. Boston has three World Series titles to New York’s one over the last 14 years. This time, it’s the Red Sox that have been the better team all season long and are supposed to advance to the next round.

The 2018 MLB season was the greatest in the history of the Red Sox. They had the best record in baseball with 108 wins, finishing five games ahead of the closest team and eight games ahead of the Yankees in the division. With Game 1 set to be played at Fenway Park, Boston is more than a 2/3 favorite in the ALDS.

Mookie Betts is the AL MVP favorite, according to OddsShark, and J.D. Martinez has the third-best odds of being recognized as the league’s best player. Chris Sale has the second-best odds to win the AL Cy Young award, and he’d likely be first if he didn’t miss significant time due to injury.

The Yankees don’t have any viable MVP or Cy Young contenders. Their ace likely won’t start until Game 3 because they had to beat the Oakland Athletics in the AL Wild-Card game to even reach the division series. The Red Sox won the season series with the Yankees 10-9, including a four-game sweep at Fenway Park in August that essentially gave them the division title.

Boston is favored over New York with good reason. Their regular-season dominance, however, doesn’t mean they’ll have that same kind of success in the playoffs.

With a lineup that features multiple MVP candidates and five players with an OPS of .830 or more, Boston’s offense isn’t an issue in the postseason. The same can’t be said for their pitching staff, which faces several questions this October.

Perhaps the biggest question surrounds Chris Sale, who is probably the AL’s best pitcher when he’s at his best. The problem is the left-hander hasn’t been at his best for some time. Sale had multiple DL stints because of a shoulder injury. He made one start in August, throwing five brilliant innings against the Baltimore Orioles, but went right back on the shelf before returning on Sept. 11.

Sale pitched 7.1 total innings in his first three September appearances. He threw 4.2 innings of three-run ball in his final start, and he had an average velocity of 90.4 mph on his fastball. Sale had consistently lived in the upper 90’s earlier in the season while putting together his Cy Young campaign.

After Sale, you’ve got David Price in Game 2. The veteran has performed like a surefire Hall of Famer over the course of his career with the exception of two situations: when he’s facing the Yankees and when he’s pitching in the playoffs.

Price is 15-14 in his career against the Yankees with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP, including a 10.34 ERA in three starts against New York this season. Price’s postseason struggles are well-documented with his 5.03 ERA in 73.1 playoff innings. In his nine playoff starts, he’s gone more than four innings while allowing fewer than three runs just once.

Don’t forget Boston’s No.3 starter, Rick Porcello, who has a 5.47 ERA in 24.2 playoff innings. Then there’s the Red Sox bullpen, which pitched to an AL-worst 4.84 ERA in September.

That’s not to say the Yankees definitely have a significant advantage in the rotation. Luis Severino performed so badly in the second half of the season that he nearly lost his spot as the wild-card starter, and he only completed four innings before being pulled against Oakland. Price finished the season with a better ERA than J.A. Happ, Masahiro Tanaka and C.C. Sabathia.

New York should feel confident in giving the ball to Happ in Game 1. He posted a 2.69 ERA after joining the Yankees shortly before the trade deadline and has a 1.99 ERA in 22.2 innings against the Red Sox this season. Tanaka proved to be a big-game pitcher during the Yankees’ 2017 playoff run when he had a 0.90 ERA in three starts.

Sabathia is certainly hittable, though he always seems to come up big for the Yankees, starting the team’s ALDS clincher last year and posting a 2.37 ERA in four postseason starts. Severino is looking more and more like his old self with a 1.66 ERA in his last four starts.

A strong performance by the Yankees’ pitching staff won’t mean much if they can’t hit. A team ERA of 2.73 wasn’t good enough for New York to defeat the Houston Astros in the 2017 ALCS because they were held to one run or fewer in all four of their losses.

Just 25 runs scored separated the Yankees and Red Sox in the regular season. New York’s bats have gotten hot at the right time, and it could be what ultimately propels them to the ALCS.

The Yankees have scored at least seven runs in six of their last seven games. Aaron Judge’s return from a wrist injury that forced him to miss all of August and part of September has bolstered the lineup. Giancarlo Stanton might be the most dangerous hitter in baseball when he’s at his best, and the slugger seems to be locked in with four home runs in his last five games. Andrew McCutchen has a .421 on-base percentage since being acquired on Aug. 31, and Luke Voit had more home runs than any AL player from Aug. 24 through the end of the regular season.

Boston has a terrific lineup, but New York’s offense doesn’t take a backseat to the Red Sox. Add in the fact the Yankees’ rotation and bullpen both seem primed to have a better postseason and you’ve got the recipe for yet another upset in the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry.

Since the start of the 2017 playoffs, the Yankees are a perfect 7-0 at home in postseason games, outscoring their opponents, 42-14. If New York can steal one of the first two games at Fenway Park, the series won’t be returning to Boston.

Series Prediction: New York in four