NFL Picks 2017: Week 11 Best Bets Against The Spread

Some of the NFL’s best teams have a chance to pick up key road victories in Week 11. The New England Patriots, Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars can take one step closer towards securing a playoff berth and possibly landing a bye in the postseason. Five teams with winning records are favored on the road, according to the Las Vegas betting odds.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 11 of the 2017 NFL season:

Chicago Bears (+2.5)

The Detroit Lions have stayed in the NFC North race with two straight wins over the Green Bay Packers and Cleveland Browns. Winning in Chicago won’t be easy for a team that hasn’t won three straight games all season.

Let’s see what the Lions’ offense can do on the road against one of the NFL’s best defenses. The last time Detroit faced a top-10 defense, they failed to score a single touchdown. Matthew Stafford was picked off three times against a good Saints’ defense, and Detroit was held to 10 points until scoring a couple of late touchdowns against the Panthers.

Even with last week’s loss to the Packers, the Bears have played much better at home. Chicago has wins over the Steelers and Panthers at Soldier Field, and they nearly upset both the Falcons and Vikings. The Bears are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games both at home and against the Lions, according to OddsShark. Chicago has 17 sacks and seven fumble recoveries in five home games.

Los Angeles Rams (+2)

Sunday’s game between the Rams and Minnesota Vikings could very well decide which team gets a first-round bye this postseason. Even though Minnesota is at home, there’s a good chance L.A. will get the win and improve to 8-2 on the year.

The unexpected play of Case Keenum has turned Minnesota into a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The career backup threw four touchdown passes in last week’s win over the Redskins, improving his passer rating to 92.6. Don’t expect him to have that same kind of performance against the Rams, who are holding quarterbacks to a 73.3 passer rating. Keenum has struggled against good pass defenses, failing to even post a 77.0 passer rating against the Steelers, Ravens and Lions. All three of those teams are in the top 11 in opponents’ passer rating.

As good as Minnesota’s defense has been, the unit has barely been tested during the team’s five-game winning streak. After facing Mitchell Trubisky, Brett Hundley, Joe Flacco and DeShone Kizer, the Vikings gave up 30 points to the Redskins. Jared Goff, Todd Gurley and the Rams’ offense can move the ball enough to help Los Angeles escape with the victory.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)

Picking against the Cleveland Browns each week might be the smartest NFL betting strategy. Cleveland has just one victory since the start of last season, and it could be a while before they get back into the win column.

It isn’t just that the Browns continue to lose week after week. Cleveland has barely been competitive of late, losing three of their last four games by at least 14 points. Playing at home won’t exactly help the Browns. They’ve covered the spread in Cleveland just four times in their last 20 games, and Jacksonville is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven road games, per OddsShark.

DeShone Kizer has been the league’s worst starting quarterback, by far, and he could be in for a nightmare performance against the NFL’s No.1 defense. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey might be the Defensive Player of the Year. Blake Bortles could have one of his better games as he takes on a defense that’s surrendered a 104.4 passer rating.

New England Patriots (-6.5)

Now that the Patriots seem to have fixed their issues on defense, they might win the remainder of their regular-season games. That includes Sunday’s contest in Mexico City against the Oakland Raiders.

New England is on a five-game winning streak, and each of their last four victories has come by at least a touchdown. They haven’t given up more than 17 points in a game since Week 4, which is bad news for a Raiders’ offense that’s been extremely disappointing. Amari Cooper and Marshawn Lynch haven’t been close to the playmakers that they were expected to be, and David Carr hasn’t gotten the ball down the field with consistency.

The best way to slow down Tom Brady is to put pressure on him, but Oakland is tied for last in the NFL with 13 sacks. That’s led to the team allowing a league-worst 110.5 passer rating, and the Raiders are still searching for their first interception of the season. Don’t count on them picking off the greatest quarterback of all time, who leads the NFL in passing yards and has thrown for 19 touchdowns and two interceptions.

New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

If there were any questions about the Saints being a true Super Bowl contender, they were answered with last week’s 47-10 win in Buffalo. They should take care of business at home against the Washington Redskins, who are quickly falling out of playoff contention.

All of New Orleans’ victories during their seven-game winning streak have come by at least eight points, and they’ve failed to cover the spread just once. The Saints are averaging 35 points per game over their last five contests, moving the ball with ease through the air and on the ground. Drew Brees’ 104.0 passer rating is good for fourth in the league, and running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have combined for 5.24 yards per carry. After suffering a rash of injuries, the Redskins have allowed at least 33 points in three of their last four games.

Injuries to Washington’s offensive line have limited Kirk Cousins to just two touchdown passes and two interceptions over the last three weeks. Running back Rob Kelley is now done for the season, and the Redskins will face a New Orleans’ defense that’s given up 17 points or fewer in six of their last seven games.