NFL Picks 2018: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 7 Include Ravens, Redskins, Vikings

Most of the games on the NFL Week 7 schedule could go either way. No team is favored by double-digits, according to the Las Vegas betting odds. Six teams are favored by a field goal or less in six of Sunday’s 10 afternoon games.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 7 of the 2018 NFL season:

Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Minnesota is still one of the top Super Bowl contenders in the NFC. They should take care of business on the road and beat a mediocre New York Jets’ team.

The Jets have won two straight games at home against teams that will almost certainly miss the playoffs. New York still hasn’t beaten a good team this year, losing on the road to Cleveland and Jacksonville while suffering an eight-point loss to Miami at home. Minnesota is just two weeks removed from winning in Philadelphia, and they had the ball with a chance to tie the Rams in Los Angeles in the game’s final minutes. The Vikings also tied the Packers at Lambeau Field.

Maybe Minnesota’s defense isn’t what it was last year, but it still has a chance to be a top-10 unit. Only six teams are allowing fewer yards per rush than the Vikings. Sam Darnold has not played well against a team that can defend the pass. If Kirk Cousins can hold onto the football and avoid giving New York’s offense a short field to work with, the rookie quarterback might look like he did in Weeks 2-4 when he threw two touchdown passes and four interceptions with passer ratings below 75.0 in each game.

Cleveland Browns (+3)

Following their worst loss of the season, the Browns should be able to bounce back on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cleveland is the better team, and they’ve got a great chance to extend Tampa Bay’s losing streak to four games.

The Browns’ offense has looked bad over the last two weeks largely because they’ve faced two of the NFL’s most talented defenses. The unit will perform much better against the league’s worst defense. Tampa Bay can’t stop anyone, ranking last in yards per play allowed (6.9), yards per game allowed (356) and opponents’ passer rating (129.5). Their best performance came when they gave up 21 points to Nick Foles and the Eagles. The Bucs have surrendered at least 30 points in every other contest, and Baker Mayfield will put up big numbers.

Tampa Bay leads the league in yards per play (7.2), but Jameis Winston will struggle against a defense that’s second in opponents’ passer rating (76.8). He’s among the league’s most reckless quarterbacks, throwing 15 interceptions in his last 14 games. Cleveland has more takeaways (16) than any team, and that could spell disaster for the Bucs.

Washington Redskins (-2)

The Dallas Cowboys are getting less than a field goal on the road, indicating that they are better than the Redskins. There isn’t a ton of evidence through six weeks to suggest that Dallas is the superior team, making Washington an easy pick.

Don’t expect the Cowboys’ team that blew out the Jaguars 40-7 at home in Week 6 to show up in Week 7. Dallas’ offense has been atrocious all year, so much so that the team still only ranks 26th in points per game (20.5) and 29th in yards per game (319.5) after that performance. The Cowboys are 0-3 on the road, scoring eight points, 13 points and 13 points in their three losses. Dak Prescott has thrown for 546 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions away from home.

Washington’s defense has been terrific at home, allowing offenses engineered by Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton to total just 55 points. The Redskins have a decent run defense, and you can bet they’ll try to force Prescott, not Ezekiel Elliott, to beat them. Dallas does have one of the NFL’s best defenses, but Alex Smith and Washington’s run game should do enough to win a low-scoring game if they can avoid costly turnovers. The Cowboys are 23rd in takeaways, and only the Falcons have fewer giveaways than the Redskins.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

In a matchup between two very good teams, Baltimore has the edge against the New Orleans Saints. Led by the NFL’s No.1 defense, the Ravens should be able to get the job done at home.

The Ravens have the best defense in football by just about every measurement. The rank first in yards per play allowed (4.4), yards per game allowed (270.8), opponents’ passer rating (73.1) and sacks (26). Aside from giving up 28 points in the first half at Cincinnati, Baltimore’s defense has been absolutely outstanding. Stopping Drew Brees won’t be easy, but the Ravens did give up just 14 points to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Now, they return home after three straight road games. They’ve surrendered 17 total points in two games at M&T Bank Stadium.

Maybe Brees will put up his usual eye-popping numbers, though he traditionally isn’t nearly as great outdoors. Joe Flacco could match Brees, considering New Orleans has been awful against the pass. The Saints are 31st in opponents’ passer rating (115.4), and Flacco plays much better at home. The Ravens can win a low-scoring affair or a shootout, and they are a great bet with the point spread below a field goal.

New York Giants (+5.5)

As poorly as the Giants have played this season, they’ve actually been pretty competitive on the road. New York should be able to compete in a close game against the Atlanta Falcons, who are also among the league’s most disappointing teams.

It’s hard to believe that a team that has both Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. can rank 27th in points scored. With New York looking to break out of their funk, Atlanta might be the perfect opponent. The Falcons are 29th in yards allowed per play (6.4) and 30th in yards allowed per game (417.2). Atlanta hasn’t been able to stop anyone since losing several starters on defense, giving up 37.5 points per game over the last four weeks. The Bucs scored 29 points in Atlanta despite two Jameis Winston interceptions in Week 6, and the Giants could have a similar performance with Eli Manning throwing for a lot of yards.

The Falcons should be able to outscore the Giants, though Atlanta is also banged up on offense. Injuries prevented both Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu from practicing Thursday. Julio Jones has failed to score a touchdown in his last 11 regular-season games. New York is seventh in red-zone defense, and Atlanta’s struggles within the 20-yard line could return Monday night. The Falcons are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games, according to OddsShark.

Season Record: 15-12-3

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