NFL Playoff Picks Against The Spread 2017: Predictions, Updated Las Vegas Odds For Conference Championship Games ATS

Four of the NFL’s 32 teams are left fighting to reach Super Bowl LI. Even though some of the league’s best teams have been eliminated, it isn’t much of a surprise to see who is left standing on Championship Sunday.

Arguably the four best quarterbacks in the playoffs will play in Sunday’s conference title games. Tom Brady leads the New England Patriots against Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship Game. The Atlanta Falcons and MVP favorite Matt Ryan host the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship Game.

Even though the Steelers and Packers won road games last week, the Patriots and Falcons are both favored at home. The favorites are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in conference title games in the last three years. New England lost as a road favorite against the Denver Broncos in last season’s AFC title game.

Below are picks against the spread for the 2017 conference championship games, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.

Green Bay Packers (+4.5) at Atlanta Falcons

It’d be difficult for these two teams to play a more entertaining game than last week’s contest between the Packers and Dallas Cowboys, but they might come close. With the over/under up to 61, the NFC Championship Game should be an exciting shootout that’s decided in the final minutes. Because it wouldn’t be surprising to see either team win, the Packers are the logical choice, getting nearly five points.

The Falcons’ offense has been just about unstoppable at home, no matter whom they’ve played. Entering the divisional playoffs, they were scoring 35 points per game at the Georgia Dome and proceeded to put up 36 points on the Seattle Seahawks’ No. 3 scoring defense. Matt Ryan was the best quarterback that started every game in the regular season, and he should put up more big numbers against a vulnerable Packers’ defense.

But as good as Ryan has been this season, Aaron Rodgers might currently be playing better than any quarterback has in NFL history. He’s thrown 24 touchdown passes and one interception since Nov. 20, and he’ll continue to have success against the NFL’s No. 28 pass defense.

The Falcons are 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games as home favorites. After losing by one point against Atlanta in the regular season, Green Bay is 3-0 against the spread in their last three visits to the Georgia Dome.

Prediction ATS: Green Bay

Pittsburgh Steelers (+6) at New England Patriots

Pittsburgh has the best chance of any AFC team to win in New England, but the reality is that no one is defeating the Patriots on their way to the Super Bowl. The Patriots will be challenged more than they were in last week’s 18-point win over the Houston Texans, though they should win the AFC Championship Game comfortably.

New England has been the Super Bowl favorite all season long because they are such a balanced team. No team has allowed fewer points than the Patriots, and Tom Brady is at the top of his game. He’s 12-1 as a starter, and his 28 touchdowns and two interceptions in the regular season set a new NFL record.

Pittsburgh’s offense can be explosive with Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, and the Steelers will try to take advantage of a New England defense that hasn’t been truly tested this season. Ben Roethlisberger and Co., however, have struggled against good defenses, failing to get a touchdown in the divisional playoffs against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Patriots are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 home games. New England has won 19 of 22 home playoff games, and the Steelers have covered the spread just three times in their last 14 games against the Patriots.

Prediction ATS: New England