NFL Upset Picks 2022: Can The 49ers, Bills, Rams, Bengals Win Straight Up In Divisional Playoffs?

Every road team has a real chance to win in the divisional round of the 2022 NFL playoffs. The Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams were the two most impressive teams in the wild-card round. The San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals are two of the NFL’s hottest teams and can make for logical picks to pull off second-round upsets.

Here’s a ranking of the underdogs in the divisional playoffs, based on their chances of winning straight up and reaching the conference championship game. Betting odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.

1) Cincinnati Bengals (+165) at Tennessee Titans

There are a few reasons why Tennessee is the most likely favorite to be upset in the divisional round, but the quarterback matchup stands out the most. The Titans are the only home team that doesn’t have the better player at the game’s most important position. Even though Ryan Tannehill remains underrated, he doesn’t have the same ability as Joe Burrow. Burrow had the season’s second-best passer rating and was outstanding in his playoff debut with a 110.4 rating against the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Titans weren’t exactly dominant on the way to the No. 1 seed, winning half their games by a field goal or less and going to overtime in three contests. Cincinnati easily won at Tennessee 31-20 last season. Additions like Ja'Marr Chase and Trey Hendrickson make this a much better Bengals team. There’s also the matter of Derrick Henry, who has missed three months and still isn't 100% going to play Sunday.

2) Buffalo Bills (+105) at Kansas City Chiefs

All you have to do is look at Buffalo’s 38-20 victory in Kansas City on Oct. 10 to see how the Bills can win. Patrick Mahomes was intercepted twice by a Buffalo defense that gave up the fewest yards and points in the regular season. That No. 1 defensive ranking carried over to the wild-card round in the Bills’ 47-17 win over the New England Patriots. The Bills can be susceptible against the run, but the Chiefs’ offense does most of its damage in the air.

Mahomes is in the midst of his worst season as a pro. Josh Allen is one of the few quarterbacks who on his best day can match up with Mahomes. Allen went 21-for-25 for 308 yards, five touchdowns and a 157.6 passer rating against New England, in addition to 66 rushing yards. If Allen is having another one of those nights, the Chiefs are in big trouble.

3) Los Angeles Rams (+130) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Here’s another matchup in which the underdog defeated its second-round opponent earlier this season. The Rams handed the Buccaneers their first loss, winning convincingly 34-24 in Week 3. Los Angeles also beat Tampa Bay last year, indicating that Sean McVay’s squad might be a bad matchup for the defending champs. The Rams intercepted Tom Brady twice in 2020 and sacked him three times in 2021.

The Rams have added more talent as the season has moved along, while the Bucs have lost some key players. Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller have thrived in L.A. Receivers Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown won’t play for the Bucs. Tampa Bay is dealing with injuries to a pair of offensive linemen, a potential issue with Aaron Donald trying to hit Brady all game long.

4) San Francisco 49ers (+185) at Green Bay Packers

It was only two seasons ago that Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers dismantled Matt LaFleur’s Packers within the span of two months: a 37-8 regular-season win and an equally embarrassing 37-20 Green Bay loss in the 2020 NFC Championship Game. The Packers needed a last-second field goal to beat the 49ers 30-28 in Week 3 of this season. San Francisco is now playing its best football of the year.

Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Aaron Rodgers is a significant mismatch on paper, but San Francisco can potentially nullify that with their running game. The 49ers have one of the NFL’s top rushing attacks, and Deebo Samuel might be the league’s best playmaker with the ball in his hands. The Packers are second-to-last in opponents’ yards per carry. Garoppolo only needed to attempt eight passes when San Francisco eliminated Green Bay in their last playoff matchup.