NFL Week 1 Picks Against The Spread 2021: Predictions ATS, Betting Odds, Matchups
With so many unknowns heading into the 2021 NFL season, every opening weekend game features a betting line of fewer than eight points. Three teams are favored by a touchdown, and four underdogs are getting less than a field goal.
Here are picks against the spread for every game in Week 1, as well as updated betting odds. Betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are going to score a ton of points against one of the league’s worst defenses. Tampa Bay brings back every starter from a team that averaged 33.9 points as it ended last season with eight straight wins. Cowboys guard Zack Martin is sidelined with COVID-19. The Super Bowl champs might not have much trouble in the opener.
Prediction ATS: Tampa Bay
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Houston Texans
If there’s any time to bet on the Texans, it’s when they’re playing at home against a quarterback and head coach who are making their NFL regular-season debuts. Jacksonville last won a road game in 2019. The Jaguars’ only victory last season came in Week 1 when they stunned the Colts. Maybe Houston, which is projected to be the NFL’s worst team, can pull off a Week 1 upset of their own and catch Jacksonville by surprise.
Prediction ATS: Houston
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) at Buffalo Bills
The Steelers are in the conversation for having the AFC’s best defense. Buffalo beat Pittsburgh 26-15 last year, but Josh Allen was limited to a 77.5 passer rating and one of the Bills touchdowns came off a pick-six. The Steelers’ commitment to the run game might not be a problem against a poor Buffalo rush defense.
Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Detroit Lions
This has the makings of being the biggest Week 1 blowout. San Francisco is healthy going into Sunday and could have its way with a potentially awful Detroit defense. Jared Goff underperformed against the 49ers in the last couple of seasons with the Rams. Now, the Lions quarterback might have the NFL’s worst group of receivers.
Prediction ATS: San Francisco
New York Jets (+5) at Carolina Panthers
Sam Darnold didn’t have much success with the Jets, and he could struggle plenty with the Panthers, as well. Carolina is coming off two straight 5-11 seasons with major questions about their quarterback and offensive line. This is among the most intriguing quarterback matchups, as Zach Wilson makes his debut.
Prediction ATS: New York
Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons’ offense could be one of the NFL’s best with Arthur Smith leading the way and Kyle Pitts at tight end. Atlanta’s defense, however, could give Philadelphia a chance to potentially steal this one. Expect a tighter-than-expected outcome.
Prediction ATS: Philadelphia
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis will have trouble keeping up with one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. Russell Wilson is a legitimate MVP candidate with a pair of receivers that are better than most around the league. The Colts won’t have leading receiver T.Y. Hilton. It’s still unknown if Carson Wentz, who is coming foot surgery, can bounce back from a disappointing 2020 season.
Prediction ATS: Seattle
Arizona Cardinals (+3) at Tennessee Titans
This might end up being the best game on the Week 1 schedule. Tennessee can score with anyone. Kyler Murray might have some highlight-reel plays against a poor Titans’ defense. Tennessee has the edge at home, where the team is averaging 32.4 points over its last 12 games.
Prediction ATS: Tennessee
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals
If Minnesota’s shaky offensive line can hold its own against a mediocre Cincinnati front-seven, this game shouldn’t be particularly close. The Vikings return all the key components from last year’s top-five offense. Joe Burrow could struggle to find his footing in his first NFL game in 10 months against an improved Minnesota defense.
Prediction ATS: Minnesota
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Washington Football Team
Coming off his outstanding rookie season, Justin Herbert will be tested right away in year No. 2. The Chargers have to play an early-afternoon game on the other side of the country against a defense that can get after the quarterback better than almost any other unit in the NFL. Ryan Fitzpatrick might put up some big numbers to start the season before the wheels eventually fall off.
Prediction ATS: Washington
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at New York Giants
The Broncos haven’t proven enough to be decisive road favorites on the East coast. New York’s defense could make things difficult for Teddy Bridgewater in his first start with Denver. Saquon Barkley is likely to suit up for the Giants for the first time in a year.
Prediction ATS: New York
Green Bay Packers (-4) at New Orleans Saints
The line has moved one point in favor of Green Bay since the game was moved from New Orleans to Jacksonville. Hurricane Ida has displaced the Saints, forcing the team to practice in Dallas. A little preseason success doesn’t mean Jameis Winston has become a different quarterback, and his lack of proven receivers is going to be an issue. Aaron Rodgers will play well against a defense that lost several starters in the offseason.
Prediction ATS: Green Bay
Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
It’s hard to bet against the Chiefs when they are laying less than a touchdown at home, even against a potential Super Bowl contender in the Browns. Kansas City’s rebuilt offensive line should be able to hold up against Myles Garrett and Co. In all three of his season openers, Mahomes has led the Chiefs to at least 34 points and a double-digit win.
Prediction ATS: Kansas City
Miami Dolphins (+3) at New England Patriots
Bill Belichick is a master at confusing young quarterbacks. Tua Tagovailoa was held to 145 yards and no touchdowns in his one start against the Patriots as a rookie. New England’s defense will be much improved this season. The return of fans means that the Patriots, once again, have a notable home-field advantage.
Prediction ATS: New England
Chicago Bears (+7.5) at Los Angeles Rams
In each of the last three seasons, this matchup has been one of the ugliest games in the NFL. The three contests have featured an average of just 26.3 total points. With another low-scoring affair likely on the way, grabbing the seven points is the best bet.
Prediction ATS: Chicago
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
It could be a very long season for the Raiders. Las Vegas’ defense didn’t get any better in the offseason. Lamar Jackson could have his way with the Raiders Monday night. When Derek Carr last faced Baltimore’s defense in 2018, he completed fewer than half his passes for less than 200 yards.
Prediction ATS: Baltimore
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