NFL Week 10 Picks Against The Spread 2021: Predictions ATS, Betting Odds, Matchups

Half of the games on the NFL Week 10 schedule feature a betting line of more than seven points. Three underdogs are getting at least nine points at home, and five teams are road favorites.

Here are picks against the spread for every game in Week 10 of the 2021 NFL season, as well as updated betting odds. Betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins

When the Ravens last visited Miami two years ago, Baltimore blew out the Dolphins 59-10 as Lamar Jackson threw five touchdown passes with a perfect passer rating. Thursday’s game won’t be as one-sided, but the Ravens shouldn’t have trouble winning by more than seven points. Miami is the only team that ranks in the bottom three in both total offense and total defense.

Prediction ATS: Baltimore

New Orleans Saints (+3) at Tennessee Titans

Tennessee has the AFC’s best record with wins over Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford over the last five weeks. Even without Derrick Henry, the Titans should beat Trevor Siemian, who didn’t exactly light up the Falcons in his first start as a Saint. Tennessee is sixth in sacks, holding opposing quarterbacks to an 88.4 passer rating.

Prediction ATS: Tennessee

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) at Washington Football Team

The Bucs should beat Washington by double digits. Washington has lost its matchups with Buffalo, New Orleans, Kansas City and Green Bay by 11 points or more. Tom Brady leads all quarterbacks with 331.1 passing yards per game and 25 touchdowns. Washington has the NFL’s second-worst opponents’ passer rating.

Prediction ATS: Tampa Bay

Detroit Lions (+9) at Pittsburgh Steelers

All eight of Pittsburgh’s games have been relatively close. None of the Steelers’ five wins have come by more than one score. The Lions have a major rest advantage since Detroit had a Week 9 bye and Pittsburgh is coming off a Monday night game with Chicago.

Prediction ATS: Detroit

Cleveland Browns (+1) at New England Patriots

This might be the best game on the Week 10 schedule. New England’s defense could give Baker Mayfield some trouble, but the Browns’ offense might have turned a corner with their 41-16 win in Cincinnati. Cleveland owns a top-three defense, and Mac Jones has struggled with the best defenses on the Patriots’ schedule.

Prediction ATS: Cleveland

Atlanta Falcons (+9) at Dallas Cowboys

Since being outscored 80-31 in two losses to start the season, the Falcons have gone 4-2. Atlanta has scored at least 27 points in four of its last five games. Dallas’ defense has regressed, dropping to 28th in opponents’ yards per play. Expect a high-scoring, competitive game.

Prediction ATS: Atlanta

Buffalo Bills (-13.5) at New York Jets

It’s hard to lay two touchdowns with the Bills after last week’s loss in Jacksonville. New York’s offense has been much improved in two games without Zach Wilson, reaching the 30-point mark in each contest. The Jets are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games. Josh Allen has never beaten the Jets by more than 10 points.

Prediction ATS: New York

Jacksonville Jaguars (+10.5) at Indianapolis Colts

The line is probably too high for a divisional matchup between teams that have played each other evenly in recent seasons. Indianapolis has been much better than Jacksonville since 2018, but the rivals have split their six head-to-head meetings. The Colts only give up eight fewer yards per game than the Jaguars.

Prediction ATS: Jacksonville

Carolina Panthers (+10) at Arizona Cardinals

There’s a real chance that Arizona will be cautious and rest both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins for a second straight week. Colt McCoy won’t have a repeat performance of his Week 9 start, which was aided by James Conner’s 173 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns. Carolina’s defense is second in opponents’ yards per play.

Prediction ATS: Carolina

Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) at Green Bay Packers

With Russell Wilson back under center, Seattle is a live underdog in Green Bay. The Seahawks’ defense impressed in Wilson’s absence, holding three opponents to an average of 14.3 points per game. Aaron Rodgers will likely play, but he can’t return to the Packers until Saturday after spending 10 days away from the team.

Prediction ATS: Seattle

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

The Vikings have not proven they can beat a good team. Minnesota blew a 14-point, second-half lead in Baltimore in Week 9, falling to 0-5 against teams that are over .500. The Chargers lead the AFC West despite playing a tough schedule that includes six opponents with winning records.

Prediction ATS: Los Angeles

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Denver Broncos

The Broncos aren’t nearly as good as they looked in their upset win over the Cowboys. Denver controlled the game on the ground, but the Broncos now face an Eagles defense that ranks sixth in opponents’ yards per carry. Philadelphia is in the top half of the league in both yards per play and yards per play allowed.

Prediction ATS: Philadelphia

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Why are the Chiefs favored by nearly a field goal on the road against a playoff contender? Kansas City hasn't had a quality win since the season opener. Patrick Mahomes looks like a completely different quarterback with an average passer rating of 74.6 in the last five games. The Chiefs still rank dead last in opponents’ yards per play.

Prediction ATS: Las Vegas

Los Angeles Rams (-4) at San Francisco 49ers

It seems clear that preseason expectations were too high for the 49ers. San Francisco’s three wins have come against teams with a combined 6-20 record. The 49ers haven’t scored more than 21 points in four of their last five games. Six of Los Angeles’ wins have come by more than one score.

Prediction ATS: Los Angeles

Season Record: 65-68-3