NFL Week 15 Predictions 2021: Upset Picks, Straight Up Winners, Best Moneyline Bets

Betting odds for several NFL Week 15 games have changed significantly in recent days. A few teams that are playing some of the worst football in the league are now favored, creating opportunities to bet on underdogs that have a real chance to win outright.

Here are the best upset picks for Week 15 for the 2021 season. Moneyline odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Cleveland Browns (+102) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

A COVID-19 outbreak within the Browns has turned Cleveland into an underdog at home against Las Vegas. The odds have shifted too much, and this is still a game that the Browns can win.

Baker Mayfield is the biggest name to go on the COVID-19/reserve list, but there might be no downgrade from him to Case Keenum. With multiple serious shoulder injuries, Mayfield has been one of the NFL’s worst starters. The Browns have scored 14 points or fewer in five of Mayfield’s last seven starts. Cleveland defeated the Denver Broncos 17-14 with Keenum under center and notable players like Nick Chubb sidelined in Week 7.

With five losses in their last six games, the Raiders are no better than the Broncos. Las Vegas failed to score 17 points in any of those defeats. Tight end Darren Waller, the Raiders’ top playmaker, might miss a third straight game with an injury. Cleveland’s top-five defense, led by Myles Garrett, could be the best unit on the field.

Houston Texans (+190) at Jacksonville Jaguars

There’s been significant line movement in this game, but not because of COVID. Once 3.5-point underdogs, Houston is now getting five points in Jacksonville, following the Jaguars’ decision to fire Urban Meyer. Have Jacksonville’s chances of winning actually gone up that much because the head coach is gone?

With or without all the baggage that Meyer brings, the Jaguars are one of the NFL’s worst teams. Before Jacksonville started this season 2-11, it went 1-15 in 2020, ending the season on a 15-game losing streak. Both of Jacksonville’s victories in 2021 have come by a field goal, which means the Jaguars have gone 28 straight games without winning by more than three points. Given how unlikely it is for Jacksonville to win convincingly, Houston is a great bet at nearly 2/1 on the moneyline.

The Texans beat the Jaguars 37-21 in the season opener. Houston picked off Trevor Lawrence three times. The rookie hasn’t gotten any better, throwing four interceptions in Week 14. Jacksonville hasn’t scored more than 23 points in a single game this season.