NFL's Best Bet For Week 4: This ATS Game Looks Like The Closest Thing To A Lock

The Buffalo Bills left NFL experts dumbfounded in Week 3. Proving once again that football is not nearly as predictable as it may seem, Buffalo was listed as a 17-point underdog on the road against the Minnesota Vikings but came out on top, 27-6.

Indeed, there is no "sure thing" when it comes to sports betting.

But there appears to be a very favorable bet in Week 4: the New England Patriots at home over the Miami Dolphins. Oddsmakers list the Patriots as 6.5-point favorites and New England seems poised for a big victory.

ESPN's matchup predictor has the Patriots winning at 72.2 percent.

Bill Belichick's squad looks due for a convincing win. New England is 1-2 this season and no doubt eager to let out their frustrations on a Dolphins squad that despite their undefeated record are not expected to compete for the postseason. Losing at home to Miami, after dropping two of their first three games, doesn't seem fathomable in the Tom Brady era.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, could be ready for a letdown. Miami's 3-0 start came against relatively weak competition and each of the victories were by 8 points or fewer.

Both of New England's defeats were on the road. The Patriots have historically been strong at home, finishing the 2017 season with a 6-2 record, with the six wins coming by a margin of 14.3 points.

The two teams last played at Gillette Stadium in November, with Brady tossing four touchdown passes to lead New England to a 35-17 win. The Patriots were favored by 15.5 points.

The Patriots don't have a player listed as "out" or "doubtful," while the Dolphins have three players sidelined: linebacker Chase Allen (foot), defensive end Andre Branch (knee) and tight end A.J. Derby (foot).

But New England has 11 players listed as "questionable," while Miami has five players listed as "questionable."

Some pundits are not so sure that the Patriots deserve a 6.5 spread. Benjamin Hoffman of the New York Times took the Dolphins to cover, while noting that the "Patriots are likely to win at home, but there is at least a potential for an upset."

CBS Sports NFL insider Jason La Canfora picked New England to cover and all six pundits at NJ.com picked the Patriots.