Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos 2017: Week 4 Prediction, Betting Odds

The best game in Week 4 of the 2017 NFL season might be the AFC West matchup between the Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos. Both teams dropped to 2-1 with losses on the road, giving the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs sole possession of first place in the division.

The latest betting odds have Denver favored by three points at home, via OddsShark, and the over/under is 46.5. Here’s a closer look at the Week 4 game, as well as a prediction against the spread:

Why the Broncos could cover the spread

Following a 26-16 defeat at the hands of the Bills, the Broncos return to Denver, where they have one of the NFL’s best home-field advantages. It’s an especially difficult place for opposing quarterbacks to find success.

In the season opener against the Broncos, Philip Rivers threw for 192 yards, his lowest total since he faced Denver 11 months ago. In a Week 2 visit to Denver, Dak Prescott threw two interceptions for just the second time and posted the third-worst passer rating of his young career.

Derek Carr is going to play better than he did in Week 3. It’s almost impossible for him not to, after being intercepted twice and throwing for just 118 yards against the Redskins. That doesn’t mean he’s going to have a good game in Denver, where opposing quarterbacks usually have one of their worst games of the season.

Carr didn’t play particularly well when he played the Broncos in Oakland last year, even though the Raiders won. The quarterback totaled 184 passing yards and his third-lowest passer rating of 2016. Now, he goes on the road against a defense that appears to be just as good as it was a year ago.

Denver’s vaunted pass rush showed up in Buffalo, sacking Tyrod Taylor four times. The Bills' quarterback was nearly perfect when he didn’t face pressure, and the Bills’ offense took advantage of two Trevor Siemian interceptions. Siemian’s passer rating is eight points better at home, and he should bounce back against a defense that allowed Kirk Cousins to post a passer rating north of 150.

Why the Raiders could cover the spread

Don’t be fooled by Oakland’s poor showing in Washington. Their 27-10 loss in Week 3 might end up being their worst defeat of the season. The Raiders are still one of the AFC’s best teams, and they’ll be out to prove it in Denver.

The Raiders have shown that they can win tough games on the road. They opened the season by winning 26-16 in Tennessee, defeating a Titans team that has since won two games in a row. Oakland defeated Denver during their one matchup last year in which Carr was healthy, and they can certainly do it again.

Oakland is one of the few NFL teams that might be equipped to handle Von Miller and the rest of Denver’s pass rush. Carr was only sacked twice before Week 3, and he’ll play well if he has time to throw the ball. Denver has been affected by losing Shane Ray to an injury and DeMarcus Ware to retirement, ranking 17th in the NFL with seven sacks.

The Trevor Siemian that the Chargers and Cowboys saw in the season’s first two weeks isn’t going to be the quarterback that opposing defenses will see all year. Forced to throw the ball more than he had to in Denver’s two wins, it was only a matter of time before Siemian cost his team, and he did so with two key interceptions.

If Oakland takes an early lead and forces Siemian to make plays, the Broncos could lose their second straight game.

Prediction

Oakland is in a difficult two-week stretch, having to travel to Denver after playing in Washington during primetime. A second straight offensive struggle likely awaits the Raiders, who’ll be facing a defense that specializes in stopping the pass and now ranks first against the run.

The Raiders might ultimately be the second-best team in the AFC West, but that doesn’t mean they’re getting a win Sunday afternoon.

Denver over Oakland, 23-16