Pakistan To Hold Elections In January Amid Political And Economic Volatility

The long-awaited general elections in Pakistan will take place in January, the country's official body responsible for organizing elections announced Thursday.

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) said the national parliamentary polls will be held in the last week of January. The elections were due in November, but were delayed due to the remarking of constituencies based on new census data.

The announcement dispelled fears among voters and political parties about the election being delayed for an indefinite period, as the country was seized by a severe political, economic and security crisis.

"Amidst Pakistan's perennial democratic fragility, the announcement to hold general elections early next year is a welcome relief mainly to those who fear the political and economic volatility to prolong. The process is delayed by almost two months as delimitions need to be carried out in a few constituencies incorporating the results from the fresh census," Priyanka Singh, Associate Fellow at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi, told International Business Times.

Citizens of Pakistan were meant to file into polling booths to vote in November, as per the country's constitution, which states that elections are to be held within 90 days of the outgoing parliament completing its 5-year term.

Pakistan's President Arif Alvi, on the advice of former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, dissolved parliament at the completion of its five-year term in August this year, which meant the general elections were due in November. However, Sharif approved the results of the country's latest census just days before the end of the outgoing government's tenure. This meant the process of redrawing constituencies to reflect the recent census had to take place before the elections.

A caretaker government under the leadership of Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar was installed to supervise the country's day-to-day affairs.

The ECP's Thursday announcement has "helped in ending ongoing uncertainty about the elections. It was presumed that they might be held in either in February or April -May 2024 only or some thought even further delay," Nazir Ahmad Mir, a Research Analyst with MP-IDSA, told IBT.

"The election commission has given a schedule, i.e., the last week of January, thus settling the dust," he added. "If the commission is able to conduct the elections in the last week of January, it will be good for its image, given the fact it will be completing the delimitation process according to the new census of the country within a limited time period."

The election announcement comes as residents of Pakistan are burdened by economic woes due to inflation and unemployment. Experts believe it is unlikely that any new government would have a fool-proof plan to tackle the economic crisis.

"The economy is tailspinning into chaos. I do not think any ad hoc measure like some bailout is going to address the serious economic issues of the country," Mir said. "That has been clear from the protests against the mismanagement of the economy. So the issues of inflation, unemployment, current account deficit, among others are going to hurt the voters in near future. To me, no party has a blueprint that would have been handy to mitigate them."

Pakistan has been embroiled in a state of political turmoil since April 2022 when the then-Prime Minister Imran Khan was removed from power after a parliamentary no-confidence motion.

The popular cricketer-turned-prime minister was arrested in a crackdown on May 9 on corruption charges.

Khan, 70, was arrested again in August, and given an imprisonment sentence of three years.

Despite being within the confines of a prison, he still remains popular among voters today.

Singh believes that the people of Pakistan will naturally be hopeful about the votes leading to an improved economic situation in the country.

"Given the Army's absolute control in the aftermath of May 9 violence, it is foregone to say the next government will be of its choosing," Singh said. "Nonetheless, it is natural for the people of Pakistan, howsoever disillusioned at present, to be hopeful that once a new set-up is voted in, the situation may improve especially on the economic front. It is most certain Imran Khan will be out of contest being debarred after sentencing in a corruption case. However, his popularity and his voter base is a factor to reckon in the January elections. Khan's endorsements even from behind prison bars can potentially work for his party. On the other hand, how far his physical absence from the campaign and process will dampen his prospects remains to be seen."