KEY POINTS

  • The former Kremlin consultant said Putin failed to use Ukraine as a tool to pressure the West into discussing security issues
  • Pavlovsky warned that Russia could escalate the war in Ukraine if it drags on
  • Pavlovsky served as a consultant to the Russian government from 1996 to 2011

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine may have been brought about by his “obsession” with the country, a former consultant to the Kremlin said.

Gleb Pavlovsky, a 71-year-old “political technologist” who served as a consultant to the Russian government from 1996 to 2011, said the invasion of Ukraine was Putin’s “personal decision,” adding that no one in his inner circle had the chance to approve or disapprove the plan.

“Nobody, including myself, realized just how maniacally obsessed he must have been with Ukraine. We underestimated the extent of decay of the Russian government,” Pavlovsky added during an interview with RFE/RL.

The former Kremlin consultant also slammed Putin for stepping “into a trap,” noting that Ukraine was supposed to be a tool to pressure Western allies to discuss security issues. In December, Russia put forward a list of demands that it wants the West to agree with to lower the tensions in Europe. One of the demands included banning Ukraine from entering the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The list also included a demand that NATO remove any troops and weapons deployed to countries that joined the alliance after 1997.

In the interview, Pavlovsky warned that Moscow could still escalate the conflict in Ukraine the longer it drags on. He also warned that the current situation could become “conventional warfare” between Russia and the West. However, he said the circumstances of how warfare could happen are still unclear.

Pavlosky was labeled a dissident during the Soviet era and went on to serve a sentence of internal exile in the northern provinces of Russia before the fall of the Soviet Union. He later served as a consultant to the Kremlin and an adviser to Vladimir Putin. Following his exit from the Russian government, Pavlovsky became a critic of Putin’s administration.

The former Kremlin adviser’s comments come as the European Commission proposed a phased ban of Russian coal imports per year in an effort to further diminish Putin’s war chest. The ban would prohibit an estimated 4 billion euros ($4.3 billion) worth of Russian coal imports.

The U.S. is also expected to announce a new round of sanctions on Russia on Wednesday. The package is expected to include a ban on new investments in Russia and more sanctions against Russian officials and their family members.

Even with full control over media after a series of draconian measures, the President Vladimir Putin will want to report some kind of sucess when Russia on May 9 holds its annual celebration to mark victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
Even with full control over media after a series of draconian measures, the President Vladimir Putin will want to report some kind of sucess when Russia on May 9 holds its annual celebration to mark victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. POOL via AFP / Sergei GUNEYEV