Romanian Elections 2016: Polls, Issues And Candidates As Voters Decide On Prime Minister, Ruling Party

Despite being mired in widespread corruption that saw its former leader and the country’s prime minister being ousted last year, the Social Democratic Party is expected to be re-elected as Romania’s largest party in elections on Sunday. There remains a chance, however, that, mirroring recent international trends, an anti-establishment party could throw a spanner in the works.

All 504 seats in Romania’s bicameral parliament will be up for re-election, when the country’s new government will be decided. The second-poorest among the European Union’s 28-member states, Romania is currently being led by independent technocrats after Victor Ponta’s government was toppled in November 2015 following a deadly nightclub fire. Tens of thousands of protesters took the streets claiming that the fire came down to corrupt officials ignoring safety standards.

Of the 588 lawmakers elected in the last legislative elections four years ago, 89 will not complete their terms, in most cases due to their implication in corruption, according to a recent study by a Romanian think-tank.

With an absolute majority required to form a government and a plethora of political parties in the country of 19 million people, parties need to form coalitions in order to gain power. The center-left Social Democratic Party joined with the Centre Right Alliance of the Conservative Party and the National Liberal Party four years ago to win 60 percent of the vote. However, that coalition broke down in 2013.

Amid all the turmoil, the Social Democratic Party, which formed amid the ashes of the Communist Party following Romania’s 1989 revolution, looks set to maintain its dominance over the country’s politics. Opinion polls show the party getting around 40 percent of support, well ahead of the next highest polling party, the National Liberal Party of current President Klaus Iohannis, with around 27 percent support.

If those results hold, the Social Democrats would be expected to join with a junior party to form a government. And that could mean the leader of the Social Democratic Party, a man who is no stranger to scandal, becoming Romania’s next prime minister.

Liviu Dragnea, who became president of the party in July following Ponta’s removal, was handed a two-year suspended prison sentence in April after having been found guilty of voter fraud for artificially boosting voter numbers in a 2012 referendum to impeach then-President Traian Băsescu.

Still, there is reason for Romanian’s to stick with the Social Democrats. Although the country has the highest poverty rate in the EU, its economy has been one of the best performing recently after having quickly bounced back from the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.

And Dragnea has taken on an increasingly populist tone, pledging to raise salaries, cut taxes and increase public spending on pensions, schools and hospitals. It is an approach that has been criticized by the man currently installed as prime minister, Dacian Ciolos.

“Many of the parties are making some of the same economic policy proposals and promises they made four, eight years ago that have not been enforced," Ciolos, who has pushed for greater government transparency, told Reuters this week. "It is clear they are unrealistic proposals that aim to get people's attention and votes. In the future, parties need to do more to boost the trust of those [voters] who want Romanian society and institutions to reform."

Ciolos, a former European commissioner, could yet remain in office, with the National Liberal Party stating they would retain him if they take power. Despite stating that he will not run in the election, Ciolos has also been backed to stay on by the party aiming to be a disruptive force in Sunday’s election.

The Save Romania Union was only formed last year and saw its leader Nicușor Dan finish second in Bucharest mayoral elections in June. A mathematics professor, Dan originally entered politics to prevent the destruction of historical buildings in the capital city. But the focus has since been on ridding Romania of what he sees as endemic corruption in the country’s political class. The party could yet gain major influence if it is able to form a union with the National Liberal party.