Russia Still Has 'Enough Fuel,' Believes 'Time Is On Its Side': European Spy Agency

A European spy agency warned that Russia still has enough fuel to continue its invasion of Ukraine despite the war extending into its 12th month.

In a foreword to an annual report on international security, Kaupo Rosin, the new director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS), on Wednesday said that Russian President Vladimir Putin believes he can force Ukraine to the negotiating table by bombing critical and civilian infrastructures. The EFIS is the Estonian equivalent of the United Kingdom's M16.

"Despite setbacks and risks, Vladimir Putin's goal in Ukraine has not changed by early 2023. For now, there is still enough fuel to keep the war machine going – Russia will not run out of cannon fodder, Soviet-era armaments or propaganda-induced imperialism any time soon," Rosin said.

"A quality leap in Russia's war-fighting capability is very unlikely. Putin is playing for time, believing that Ukraine and the West will wear out before Russia. Putin thinks he can 'bomb' Ukraine to the negotiating table," he added.

In the foreword, Rosin warned that a victory by the Russian army could lead to an armed conflict between Moscow and the NATO alliance, Sky News reported.

Rosin's comments are in stark contrast to remarks made by Sir Jeremy Fleming, the head of the UK spy agency GCHQ, who said Russia is in a "desperate position" as it runs out of supplies and munitions to use in the conflict.

"We know - and Russian commanders on the ground know - that their supplies and munitions are running out," Fleming said in an interview with BBC News in October last year.

Rosin's remarks come as Ukraine is preparing for a possible Russian offensive that could target the northeastern Kharkiv or southeastern Zaporizhzhia regions to mark the first anniversary of its invasion.

In addition, Ukrainian officials are also anticipating a possible Russian offensive with the aim of taking over the temporarily occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

As of Wednesday, the Russian army lost a total of 134,100 military personnel in combat, according to estimates from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. The figure included 910 soldiers killed over the past day.