Russia's 'High Casualty Rates' May Force Putin To Shift Strategy, Prolong War: DNI

Russia's mounting losses in its war in Ukraine may force President Vladimir Putin to shift strategy to drag out the fighting, according to Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Avril D. Haines.

Speaking before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday, spy chief Haines said Putin may order the Russian army to shift to a hold-and-defend strategy to achieve its strategic goals in the war in Ukraine.

"Even as the Russian offensive continues, they are experiencing high casualty rates. Putin is likely better understanding the limits of what his military is capable of achieving and appears to be focused on more limited military objectives for now," Haines said.

"We don't see the Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains. They may fully shift to holding and defending the territory they currently occupy," she added.

In addition to Haines' remarks, a U.S. threat assessment report published Wednesday warned about Putin's potential to escalate the war as Moscow continues to suffer setbacks in Ukraine.

"There is real potential for Russia's military failures in the war to hurt Russian President Vladimir Putin's domestic standing and thereby trigger additional escalatory actions by Russia in an effort to win back public support," the report said.

There are various estimates of Russia's death toll in Ukraine. As per the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, about 155,530 Russian military personnel have died in the nearly 13-month war.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) last week tallied the number of Russian soldiers killed or missing in Ukraine at between 60,000 and 70,000. The figures track with a Feb. 17 intelligence report from the British Defense Ministry.

In addition to its losses among military ranks, Russia is also believed to have lost up to 30,000 mercenaries recruited by the Wagner private military company (PMC) and deployed in the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast. The losses account for at least a third of the Wagner group's numbers.

Despite mounting losses, Russian forces are continuing to push forward on the Bakhmut front where the Ukrainian military is repelling attacks.