Saints vs. Ravens 2018 Prediction: Drew Brees, New Orleans Will Lose In Baltimore In NFL Week 7

There might be no more intriguing game on the NFL Week 7 schedule than the matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Baltimore Ravens. In his first game since becoming the league’s all-time leading passer, Drew Brees will lead New Orleans’ high-powered offense on the road against the best defense in football.

With an elite offense taking on a top defense, Sunday afternoon’s contest could be considered a virtual toss-up. Baltimore is just a 2.5-point favorite at home, according to the latest betting odds at OddsShark. The total is 50 points.

Will it be New Orleans’ ability to score or Baltimore’s ability to keep the opposition out of the end zone that prevails?

There’s no arguing that the Ravens have been the NFL’s No.1 defense through six weeks. They rank first in several important categories: yards allowed, points allowed, sacks and opponents’ passer rating. Baltimore shut out the Tennessee Titans in their Week 6 victory, and they’ve given up 14 points or fewer in five of their six games.

The Saints are first with 36 points per game, and they’ve scored at least 33 points in all but one contest. Alvin Kamara might be as good as any NFL running back, and Brees might be the early-season MVP. The future Hall of Famer leads all quarterbacks with a 122.3 passer rating. He’s thrown 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions.

The bulk of Brees’ impressive numbers have been posted indoors. New Orleans’ road game against the New York Giants marked the only time they played outside in the first six weeks. Brees had season-lows of 217 yards, no touchdowns and a 77.2 passer rating while completing 56.3 percent of his throws against a bad defense.

Most of New Orleans’ success has come against bad defenses. The Cleveland Browns probably have the best defense of any Saints’ opponent, and they held Brees and Co. to 21 points.

On Sunday, Brees will play outdoors for the second time this season. The veteran is still one of the NFL’s best passers when he doesn’t play inside a dome, but his numbers certainly take a hit. Brees has a 103.6 career passer rating in domes and a 90.8 rating outdoors.

Perhaps most importantly, the Ravens are simply a much better team at home. Baltimore is 2-0 at home and 2-2 on the road. They’ve gone 6-1 in their last seven games at home, allowing more than 20 points just once.

The Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills scored just 17 total points in Baltimore’s two home games. While neither of those offenses is very impressive, the Ravens also held Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers to 14 points on the road.

The unit has had one bad half all season, allowing the Cincinnati Bengals to score 28 points in the first two quarters of their Week 2 matchup. In the other 22 quarters they’ve played, Baltimore has somehow only surrendered 49 points.

Even if the Saints are able to have some success moving the ball, the Ravens’ offense will do the same. Baltimore has scored 74 points in two home games. Joe Flacco posted passer ratings of 121.7 and 91.4, throwing four touchdown passes and no interceptions. Flacco is 60-19 with a 90.6 passer rating in his career at home. He’s under .500 with a 36-45 record and a 78.4 passer rating on the road.

With his best receiving corps in a few years, Flacco has been slightly above average in 2018. New Orleans has allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a 115.4 passer rating, ranking second-to-last in the NFL. The Saints are 27th in yards allowed per play and tied for 28th with five takeaways. Only the San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have fewer than New Orleans’ two interceptions.

The Saints might be the NFC’s second-best team, but it’s going to be difficult for any opponent to win at M&T Bank Stadium this season. The Ravens are the only NFL team Brees has never beaten, and there’s a good chance it’s going to stay that way.

Prediction: Baltimore over New Orleans, 26-20