Scotland Independence Vote Prediction: A Post-Voting Poll Puts 'No' Ahead, 54-46 Percent

The votes of millions of Scots are headed to the National Counting Center as many voters head to the pub to wait to hear the results. The only post-ballot prediction published as of Thursday night puts victory in the hands of the pro-Union No camp by 54 percent to the pro-independence Yes camp’s 46 percent.

The YouGov prediction is based on the what 1,828 people reported after they voted, combined with the votes of 800 people who said they already voted by mail. YouGov said that No voters were “slightly more likely to turn out to vote.” Turnout is expected to be above 95 percent.

Around 10 percent of No voters said they encountered “unreasonable behavior” from Yes voters and 5 percent of Yes voters reported they encountered such behavior from No voters. While reasons for a Yes or No vote vary wildly among Scots, Ipsos MORI asked voters on both sides what motivated them to get out and vote. An overwhelming majority of Yes voters said their decision was driven by the hope that Scotland would be better off independent, while half of No voters said they came out because of fear of what would happen if the Scotland broke from the U.K.

After months of being dominated by poll percentages, independence leader Alex Salmond said that no matter what, 99 percent of Scots are going to be “perfectly happy” with the outcome of the referendum, and that “they just wanted the vote.”

Salmond and his Yes supporters have long been the underdogs in the race but picked up considerable steam in the last few weeks leading up to Thursday’s vote, especially after a poll last week put the Yes vote slightly ahead.

Salmond added that “I think we are going to win by a lot more than one vote, but you never know.”

YouGov’s prediction seems to not have made much of an impression on these revelers: