Personnel of a Philippine Coast Guard ship prepare to conduct a survey in the waters of Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed South China Sea on April 23, 2023
In photo: personnel of a PCG ship prepare to conduct a survey in the waters of Second Thomas Shoal. AFP

KEY POINTS

  • Manila shouldn't give China any excuse to make an "overwhelming, disproportionate response," an expert says
  • Located around 105 nautical miles from the Philippines' Palawan island, Ayungin Shoal is within the country's EEZ
  • China continues to insist that the Second Thomas Shoal is part of its territorial waters

As tensions rise once again over the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, a maritime expert says China may be pushing the Philippines to respond to its ships' dangerous actions so that Beijing can find an excuse to strike.

China's latest actions in the disputed shoal suggest it may be waiting for the Philippines to respond first, Jay Batongbacal, maritime expert and professor at the University of the Philippines' College of Law, told ANC 24/7 in an interview Tuesday. "The [Philippine] government must not allow itself to be provoked into making the first move – to giving China any excuse for an overwhelming, disproportionate response."

Batongbacal noted that Manila should "insist on China's compliance" with international law. The disputed Second Thomas Shoal (known as Ayungin Shoal in the Philippines and Ren'ai Jiao in China) is located in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), a state or country's EEZ "shall not extend beyond 200 nautical miles from the baselines from which the breadth of the territorial sea is measured." Second Thomas Shoal is located just around 105 nautical miles from the Philippines' Palawan island.

Batongbacal said he believes "China is [already] threatening to use force against the Philippines, probably preparing as well."

His comments came days after a near-collision between a Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessel and a Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) ship near the disputed reef.

Last week, a Chinese Coast Guard ship reportedly came within a meter (3 feet) of colliding with a PCG patrol ship while trying to block supply missions to Ayungin Shoal, where a Philippine navy crew is stationed on the grounded World War II-era warship BRP Sierra Madre.

Teodoro Locsin Jr., the Philippines' ambassador to the United Kingdom, reportedly was on board one of two PCG ships on a resupply mission to the disputed shoal. Locsin Jr. was appointed as a special envoy to China in August.

Meanwhile, China continues to insist that the Second Thomas Shoal is part of its territorial waters. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said Monday that the Asian giant "has indisputable sovereignty over Nansha Qundao (Spratly Islands) and the adjacent waters, including Ren'ai Jiao."

The spokesperson noted Second Thomas Shoal "has never been the Philippines' territory" and that Beijing deems Manila's 2016 international arbitral victory illegal as the case allegedly "violated the principle of state consent."

Amid concerns that tensions may lead to an armed conflict, analysts told International Business Times that if a military showdown takes place over Second Thomas Shoal, there's "no way" the Philippines will win.

Multiple "dangerous" incidents have occurred near the disputed shoal since earlier this year. In one such instance, the crew on board a PCG vessel was temporarily blinded by a Chinese military-grade laser. In August, the Chinese coast guard allegedly fired a water cannon at a Philippine ship.

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