The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Buffalo Bills Sunday in a meeting between reigning division champions, though you might not know it by looking at the point spread. Buffalo is a significant favorite over Pittsburgh in Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season.

The Steelers are 6.5-point underdogs, according to the latest betting line at FanDuel Sportsbook. Pittsburgh has +235 odds to win outright, while Buffalo is a comfortable -290 favorite to start the season with a victory.

Expectations are high for the Bills. Buffalo is expected to repeat as AFC East champs and widely viewed as the biggest threat to the Kansas City Chiefs in the conference.

It would be a surprise, on the other hand, if Pittsburgh wins a second straight AFC North title. The Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns are considered to be the top teams in the division. Despite going 12-4 en route to a first-place finish, the Steelers ended the 2020 season with five losses in their last six games.

One of those contests was a 26-15 loss in Buffalo. Ben Roethlisberger threw for only 187 yards and two interceptions. The Steelers were held to 47 yards on the ground.

Buffalo’s usually explosive offense was held in check, as well. The Bills scored one of their touchdowns on a pick-six. Josh Allen had a 77.5 passer rating.

Pittsburgh’s defense gives the Steelers a chance to pull off the upset. Assuming T.J. Watt plays amid a contract dispute, Pittsburgh could have one of the league’s best units to start the new season.

Watt leads all edge defenders with 33 sacks in the last two seasons. The Steelers replaced Bud Dupree with Melvin Ingram, who has recorded at least seven sacks in each of his last five healthy seasons. Minkah Fitzpatrick has nine interceptions and 20 passes defensed in 30 games with Pittsburgh.

There’s a good chance the Steelers will have a top-5 defense for the third straight year.

The offense could ultimately hold Pittsburgh back. The team’s commitment to running the football might be an issue over the course of the season, but not so much in Buffalo.

The Bills allowed 4.7 yards per carry last season, ranking 25th in the league. Kansas City’s running backs averaged 5.5 yards per carry when defeating Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game.

First-round pick Najee Harris should get plenty of opportunities Sunday. New Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada should help Roethlisberher and Pittsburgh’s passing attack, which was limited to mostly short attempts in 2020. Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool lead a talented group of receivers.

Allen remains one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, but he could be due for a slight regression following last year’s top-3 MVP campaign. Allen had a historic improvement in completion percentage. Pittsburgh held opposing quarterbacks to a season-low 56.7% completion rate in 2020.

There’s bound to be at least one surprising upset in Week 1. The Steelers have the formula to pull it off.

Prediction: Pittsburgh over Buffalo, 24-21

Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger #7 of the Pittsburgh Steelers jogs to the locker room during halftime at Paul Brown Stadium on December 21, 2020 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Jamie Sabau/Getty Images
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