Sunday Night Football Week 9: Oakland Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction, Odds

Few could’ve predicted that the Oakland Raiders would be fighting to stay in playoff contention in their Week 9 visit against the Miami Dolphins on “Sunday Night Football.” Not after the team was projected to be a Super Bowl threat and looked like one with two wins to start the season.

But that’s the position that Oakland finds itself in after eight games. The Raiders have lost five of their last six contests, and falling to 3-6 would essentially end any chance of the team making the postseason.

Barring a second-half meltdown, the Kansas City Chiefs are going to win the AFC West. They are three games ahead of the Raiders with a 2.5-game lead over the second-place Denver Broncos.

It’s hard to imagine that anything less than 9-7 will be good enough to warrant a wild-card berth. If Oakland can’t win in Miami, a 6-1 finish won’t be in their future.

As poorly as they’ve played, the Raiders are actually road favorites. They are giving the Dolphins three points, according to the betting odds at OddsShark, and the over/under is 44.

Miami is one of those teams that Oakland will be hoping to surpass in the race for one of the two AFC wild-card spots. The Dolphins have won three of their last four games, tying them with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the final postseason berth in the conference.

The Dolphins, however, might be more of a mess than the Raiders.

A 40-0 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 8 was Miami’s second shutout of the season. If it wasn’t for a touchdown on the final play of their loss to the New York Jets in Week 4, the Dolphins would have three games with zero points.

“I’m pissed,” Adam Gase told reporters after losing to Baltimore. “I’m tired of this. I’m tired of the offense being awful.”

A few days later, the Dolphins traded running back Jay Ajayi to the Philadelphia Eagles for a fourth-round draft pick.

“It’s not on defense,” Gase said. “Defense is fine. Special teams we seem to be alright. ... Offensively, it’s a joke. You’ve got too many guys that don’t want to take it home with them. Until our best players actually put forth some effort, it’ll be shit.”

The Dolphins are last in yards per game (252.2) and points per game (13.1). Only the Arizona Cardinals have rushed for fewer yards, and Jay Cutler and Matt Moore have combined to give Miami the third-worst team passer rating. When Miami beat the Jets 31-28 in Week 7, it was the first time all year that they scored more than 20 points in a game.

Despite how poorly they’ve played at times, the Dolphins won’t be held scoreless against the Raiders. As bad as Miami has been on offense, that’s how poorly Oakland has played defensively at times.

Oakland is coming off a 34-14 loss against the Buffalo Bills, having allowed at least 30 points in two straight games, as well as three of their last four contests. The Raiders are 28th in yards allowed per play.

Opposing quarterbacks have had incredible success against Oakland’s secondary. The Raiders rank dead last in the NFL, allowing a passer rating of 108.2. Even Joe Flacco and Trevor Siemian—who’s since been benched—have posted passer ratings that approached triple digits when facing Oakland.

Getting a decent performance from Cutler might be enough for the Dolphins to win Sunday. Miami’s defense has generally been solid, holding the Titans, Chargers and Saints to 17 points or fewer in victories. The Dolphins are seventh in yards allowed per game.

The Raiders haven’t come close to living up to expectations offensively. Whether it’s been his back injury or less than stellar play by the offensive line, Derek Carr isn’t getting the ball downfield. The quarterback is 23rd in yards per attempt, and he’s gotten little help from Amari Cooper, who is 44th in yards per game after reaching two straight Pro Bowls.

Marshawn Lynch has been a disappointment in his first year out of retirement. He probably won’t have much success against the NFL’s No.8 run defense.

Oakland should probably be favored on the road against the Browns and 49ers, but the list ends there. The Raiders look like the worst team in their division, and they can’t be trusted to win by a field goal in Miami.

Prediction: Miami over Oakland, 20-17