Super Tuesday 2012: Ranking Candidates' Chances, State By State

Super Tuesday 2012 will be a test of strength, support and stamina for the four remaining candidates in the race for the Republican presidential nomination: former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, former U.S. senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich.

The 10 states up for grabs on March 6 offer 437 delegates in total. Some will go to the top candidate in winner-take-all primaries. Others will be divided among the candidates with the most support in each county or congressional district.

More so than the delegates involved, however, is the symbolic importance of Super Tuesday, which is designed to reveal the national consensus on each candidate in the field and determine the presumptive front-runner.

In a race that has seen almost as many front-runners as it has primaries, each Republican still running hopes to garner enough support in one night to make his legitimacy as a potential nominee unquestionable.

In what states does Ron Paul have a chance? Does Newt Gingrich have a shot anywhere besides Georgia? Who will triumph in Ohio, Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum?

For each of the 10 states below, find out the latest polling information, what type of contest it's holding, how many delegates are up for grabs and who's expected to carry the state in the end.

Georgia

Type of Contest: Primary

Delegates Up For Grabs: 76

Who's Leading In Polls: According to the most recent Public Policy Polling poll, Newt Gingrich has a massive lead at 47 percent support in the state while Romney is far behind with 24 percent support. Rick Santorum is in third with 19 percent, with Ron Paul in fourth with right percent support.

Likely Winner: An almost certain victory for Gingrich. This is the state he served as a member of the House, and the only Super Tuesday state where he has long had a double-digit lead over the other candidates.

Tennessee

Type of Contest: Primary

Delegates Up For Grabs: 58

Who's Leading In Polls: The most recent Public Policy Polling poll shows Rick Santorum with 34 percent support, although Mitt Romney is behind him by only four percentage points. Newt Gingrich is in third with 18 percent support, followed by Ron Paul with eight percent support.

Likely Winner: Likely a win for Santorum, but Romney still has a shot to take the state.

Massachusetts

Type of Contest: Primary

Delegates Up For Grabs: 41

Who's Leading In Polls: Mitt Romney by a wide margin, with the latest Suffolk/7News poll showing him ahead with 64 percent support, and Santorum a very distant second at 16 percent. Paul is in third with seven percent, Gingrich in fourth with six.

Likely Winner: Certain for Mitt Romney. He was the state's governor from 2003 to 2007, and with such a significant lead, there's no chance Massachusetts will be taken from him.

Ohio

Type of Contest: Primary

Delegates Up For Grabs: 66

Who's Leading In Polls: Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are in a statistical dead heat, according to the latest Public Policy Polling poll, which puts Romney at 37 percent and Santorum with 36 percent, a difference well within the margin of error. Newt Gingrich is in third with 15 percent, with Ron Paul close behind with 11 percent support.

Likely Winner: Too close to call. Santorum's message is often more appealing to blue-collar families, a key demographic in the Midwestern swing state, but Romney has the organization and the funds to battle his rival.

Alaska

Type of Contest: Caucus

Delegates Up For Grabs: 27

Who's Leading In Polls: There is no polling information for Alaska, which holds a two-week-long caucus.

Likely Winner: Because of the lack of polling information, predicting a winner in the state is difficult. Former governor Sarah Palin has given a half-hearted endorsement of Newt Gingrich, but Ron Paul is the only candidate to visit the state. It would seem, then, that Paul probably has the best chance of winning Alaska, simply due to visibility and the state's libertarian streak.

Vermont

Type of Contest: Primary

Delegates Up For Grabs: 17

Who's Leading In Polls: A recent poll by Castleton State College shows Mitt Romney in the lead with 34 percent support, with Rick Santorum in second with 27 percent. Paul has 14 percent, while Gingrich is in fourth at 10 percent.

Likely Winner: Very likely a win for Romney, as Vermont is a Northeast state with less of a blue-collar foundation than Santorum's strongholds in the region.

North Dakota

Type of Contest: Caucus

Delegates Up For Grabs: 28

Who's Leading In Polls: There is no polling information available for the caucus state.

Likely Winner: Because of the lack of official polling information, North Dakota is a hard one to predict. Newt Gingrich has yet to put any effort into campaigning in the state, while Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul have all been actively campaigning there. It is likely, then, that Paul, Romney and Santorum have a greater chance of winning the state.

Oklahoma

Type of Contest: Primary

Delegates Up For Grabs: 43

Who's Leading In Polls: The most recent Rasmussen Report poll has Rick Santorum with 43 percent support, with Newt Gingrich in second with 22 percent. Mitt Romney is in third with 18 percent, while Ron Paul placed fourth with seven percent.

Likely Winner: Very likely a win for Santorum, who has kept a significant lead in the state over Gingrich.

Idaho

Type of Contest: Caucus

Delegates Up For Grabs: 32

Who's Leading In Polls: There is no polling information available for the Idaho caucus.

Likely Winner: In a recent informal newspaper poll, Paul placed first with 47.8 percent of the vote, but the polling size was less than 300 people. He also won another small straw poll on Jan. 6, according to the Idaho Statesman newspaper. Before Paul supporters begin celebrating however, it is important to remember that a quarter of the state is Mormon, and that all the states with a significant Mormon population have gone to fellow LDS Church member Mitt Romney. In the end, the Idaho race is likely to be a toss-up between the two candidates.

Virginia

Type of Contest: Primary

Delegates Up For Grabs: 49

Who's Leading In Polls: Mitt Romney, with 69 percent of the vote to Ron Paul's 26 according to the most recent NBC News/Marist poll. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum both failed to get the signatures required to get on the Virginia ballot.

Likely Winner: Almost certainly a win for Romney. Despite Paul's impressive base of support in the Southern state, and the lack of competition, topping a 40 percentage point lead would be a near-impossible feat for the libertarian candidate.