Taiwan Now Wants HIMARS That Stopped The Russians, But Can They Survive A Chinese Missile Barrage?

Given its confrontation with China, Taiwan's military has indicated that it will ditch its original plan to purchase M109A6 "Paladin" self-propelled howitzers from the United States and instead buy more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) M142 launchers that have earned their stripes in Ukraine.

A report in CNA's Focus Taiwan said the defense budget proposal for 2023, sent to the Legislature on Wednesday for review, indicated that the Taiwanese army is planning to buy a total of 29 HIMARS, 18 more than was originally planned. Once the order is placed, Taiwan expects to receive its first batch of 11 HIMARS in 2024.

Taiwan's decision to go for the HIMARS comes after reports on how the weapons systems have helped Ukraine strike hard and deep inside Russian-controlled territory. HIMARS is a multiple-launch rocket system mounted on a military truck with a strike distance of 300 kilometers or more, depending on the munitions used, and with precision strike capability.

The Ukrainian military has been using them to target Russian command posts, ammunition dumps and bridges. Appreciating the weapon system, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said that HIMARS missiles are changing the course of his country's fight against Russia.

In the event of an invasion from China, Taiwan hopes that long-range weaponry will enable its army to paralyze enemy troops attempting an amphibious assault, giving the country time to rush reinforcement to its outlying islands.

Despite the hype around the HIMARS, reports have pointed out that its effectiveness lies in attacking fixed targets such as an ammunition dumps or other infrastructure. It may not be as suited to strikes against a moving target like, say, Chinese amphibious vehicles and barges bringing in the first wave of invasion troops. There is also the question of its survivavibility in a missile barrage, which China is expected to unleash if and when it attempts an invasion, along with an overwhelming amphibious and air assault.

China has developed and built a modern missile force, and its arsenal consists of a combination of ballistic, crusie and hypersonic missiles that can be launched from the air, land and sea. This formidable force is the basis of Beijing's anti-access/area denial doctrine, aimed at preventing the U.S. or any other country from rushing aid to Taiwan or any other adversary in the South China Sea.

China is also expected to overwhelm Taiwan's defenses with missile and artillery salvos before any invasion. The PLA recently conducted drills with a new "long-range, box-type rocket" PCL-191, which has a longer firing range up to 500 km. The drills were conducted near Pingtan, an island off Fujian province which is the closest point to Taiwan, with experts pointing out that the missiles could hit bases where most of the Taiwanese air force wings are located. The HIMARS would probably be sitting ducks to the Chinese missiel barrage and could be knocked out before they can even be brought into play.

According to the CNA report, Taiwan is also aiming to buy a total of 84 ATACMS, a long-range guided missile, up from the 64 which it originally planned to procure, along with a total of 864 precision rockets that can be used by HIMARS. The total budget is set at NT$32.5 billion ($1.07 billion).

It was also reported that the U.S. has indicated that the 40 "Paladin," which Taiwan wanted to buy earlier, would not be delivered on time due to inadequate production capacity.

A report in Taiwan News said that in its 2022 National Defense Budget, Taiwan's army had allocated NT$15.4 billion for the purchase of 11 HIMARS platforms between 2020 and 2027. However, the 2023 defense budget has more than doubled that amount to NT$32.5 billion to purchase the additional long-range weaponry with the final delivery date to be 2027.

Notably, a June report in Taipei Times quoting a Taiwanese Ministry of Defense (MND) report had said that China's military will be capable of fighting Taiwan and its allies together by 2027. Interesting, the year 2027 will also mark the 100th anniversary of the founding of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA).

Following the rising cross-strait tensions, Taiwan had last week announced an increase of nearly 14 percent or more than NT$70 billion in its spending on national defense for the 2023 fiscal. President Tsai Ing-wen said the money will be used to fund the domestic development of warships and fighter aircraft, improve the equipment and weaponry, boost the reserve forces, and develop tactics for asymmetrical warfare tactics.

It was reported Wednesday that Biden administration is proposing to approach Congress to approve an estimated $1.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan that will include 60 anti-ship missiles and 100 air-to-air missiles.