Texans vs. Patriots 2018: Prediction, Betting Odds, Preview For NFL Week 1

The New England Patriots and Houston Texans faced off in one of last season's most exciting games when Tom Brady led a late touchdown drive that allowed the then-defending champs to escape with a victory. The same could happen in Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season when the two teams meet in a contest that has upset potential.

New England is a six-point favorite at home in the season opener, according to OddsShark, as they, once again, enter the year as the Super Bowl favorites. The odds indicate that Houston could be one of their top challengers as Deshaun Watson returns from a torn ACL and starts his first full season as an NFL quarterback.

Last season’s Week 3 matchup between the Patriots and Texans was Watson’s coming out party. The first-round draft pick completed two-thirds of his passes for 301 yards and two touchdowns in his second career start. Houston came up shy in a 36-33 defeat, but it was only the start for the quarterback that would be among the league’s best when healthy.

In seven games before an injury ended his season, Watson totaled 1,699 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 103.0 passer rating. He added two more scores on the ground, and Houston scored no fewer than 32 points in each of his last five starts.

Will Watson be able to replicate that success in Week 1 and beyond? Two ACL surgeries in the last few years might have limited some of the quarterback’s mobility, though he showed the ability to be a top pocket passer as a rookie. Houston’s offensive line might be the worst in the NFL, and his numbers will suffer if his escapability isn’t what it was in 2017.

The offensive line could be more of a problem as the season progresses. New England’s pass rush isn’t expected to be among the league’s best.

That could mean we’re in for another shootout. Sunday’s over/under is 50.5, and that’s the highest on the entire Week 1 schedule.

Brady is somehow still as good as ever, and despite his age, there really is no evidence to indicate that 2018 will be the year he declines. The GOAT just won his third regular-season MVP award, and the last time we saw him he threw for over 500 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against the league’s No.4 defense.

While Brady has never been better, he's certainly had better weapons. Julian Edelman is suspended for four games after missing all of last season with an injury. Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola were New England’s top two receivers and are no longer with the team. They were essentially replaced with Cordarrelle Patterson, who’s never even had a 500-yard season.

Bill Belichick and Brady always find a way to make it work. Chris Hogan had 128 receiving yards in the Super Bowl and should perform like an adequate No.1 receiver. Rob Gronkowski is still the best tight end in football. Super Bowl LI hero James White could be more productive than usual in the passing game.

The potential is there for the Texans to have a strong defense, though injuries remain an issue. No one knows what three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt will be after missing most of the last two seasons. Linebacker Whitney Mercilus battled a hamstring injury in the preseason after missing 11 games last season. Jadeveon Clowney did stay on the field for all 16 games last year to set a career-high with 9.5 sacks.

Picking Houston to make a deep playoff run is risky because of all their health concerns, but they should be ready to compete in Week 1. Watson to DeAndre Hopkins is one of the most lethal combinations in the league that few teams will have an answer for.

New England rarely loses at home, so they’ll likely find a way to pull out a victory, just as they did against Houston a year ago. But don’t be surprised if this game comes down to the wire with the Texans having a chance to steal a win in the final minutes.

Prediction: New England over Houston, 30-27