In True-blue Tory Stronghold, Voters Mull PM Sunak's Fate

Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister to lose his seat at a general election if dire predictions about the scale of his Conservative party's defeat next month prove accurate.

Drinking a coffee in the affluent northeastern town of Richmond that Sunak has represented in parliament since 2015, Tom Lough, 82, said he would vote Tory as usual on July 4.

But he told AFP: "Not that I'm very happy, the country is a mess."

Bruce Walker, 67, said that he too was a Conservative voter but that he and his wife Christine would desert them for the first time in favour of Reform UK, the anti-immigration party of Brexit champion Nigel Farage.

"The values of the Conservatives are not being followed by the Conservative party: lower taxes, strong defence, the fight against illegal immigration... they're just not good enough," he said.

After 14 years of economic austerity policies, political scandals and a cost-of-living crisis under the Conservatives, disenchantment has spread to Sunak's constituency of Richmond and Northallerton.

As well as the market town of Richmond, with its historic buildings and cobbled market place, the constituency takes in the stunning Yorkshire Dales and North York Moors national parks, and a host of picturesque villages.

It is also home to Catterick Garrison, the British Army's biggest military camp, which lies three miles (five kilometres) south of Richmond.

Cathy Gosling, a 64-year-old former publisher, who said he would vote Labour, is eager to turn the page on the Tories' years in power.

She said she considered the Conservatives "corrupt, incompetent and immoral", singling out Boris Johnson for criticism as well as Liz Truss, whose disastrous mini-budget spooked financial markets.

The constituency, held by the Conservatives since 1910, was until recently considered the party's "safest seat".

But Sunak, who won with a majority of around 27,000 votes at the 2019 election, could see his support plummet from 63.6 percent to 39 percent, according to a Survation poll.

Pollsters Savanta have even raised the possibility that Sunak himself could lose his seat, which was previously held by former foreign secretary and Tory party leader William Hague.

In Richmond, with its quaint narrow streets and pretty cottages overlooked by a centuries-old castle, many people are reluctant to criticise Sunak.

Townspeople described him as a "good local MP" and a "decent politician".

But for Christine Walker, the man who took on the Tory leadership when Truss was ousted after just seven weeks in power is just not "strong enough to be the leader of our country".

Tom Wilson, the main opposition Labour party's candidate in the constituency, hopes to make waves by becoming the first candidate to unseat a prime minister.

A little-known 29-year-old communications manager for the state-run National Health Service, Wilson says a wind of change is blowing across rural England and traditional Conservative strongholds.

James Mitchell said Sunak had done nothing for some of the poorer villages in the area where his father, an army veteran, lives.

Sunak had to apologise this month after leaving commemoration events for the 80th anniversary of D-Day, angering many veterans, including those in his constituency.

Mitchell, 21, said he would vote for the first time, "probably" for Labour.

"My generation have suffered" from the "cost-of-living crisis (and) high energy bills", added Steve, a 28-year-old postal worker out walking with his daughter, who preferred not to give his full name.

He said he felt "pessimistic" about the election and doubted that Richmond would actually swing to Labour on July 4.