KEY POINTS

  • Republican unity will be tested during the impeachment vote in the Senate that might come as early as January 2020
  • GOP senators have shown an unwillingness to break with Trump on any political issue
  • A few GOP senators might disagree with the majority and vote to impeach

The 53 Senate Republicans are expected to vote as a solid bloc to acquit president Donald Trump of the crime of impeachment when the trial begins in January 2020 with chief justice John Roberts presiding over the proceedings.

On December 18, the Democrat-controlled House will vote on and adopt two articles of impeachment: abuse of power and obstructing Congress. This vote will trigger a trial in the Republican-controlled Senate in January.

It will take the vote of 67 senators to unseat Trump. There are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two Independents who vote with Democrats in the 100-person Senate. Republicans will vote as one. On the other hand, three Democrats are expected to side with the GOP: Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Doug Jones of Alabama.

There are anywhere from five to eight "Always Trumper" Republicans, FiveThirtyEight noted. Arguably, the top Trumper Republicans are Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, Mike Braun of Indiana, Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Kevin Cramer of North Dakota and Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi.

Political analysts said some of these senators either rose to power post-Trump and are closely allied with Trump on immigration issues leading to charges of racism being leveled against them. There is a consensus among DC pundits these people, plus Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue of Georgia and Rick Scott of Florida, will never break from Trump.

These people will also be Trump's last defenders if the worst somehow occurs in the Senate next month due to some earth-shaking scandal that upends the entire political calculus.

There are 32 other Trumpers, not as hardcore as those previously mentioned, that will all likely vote for Trump unless forced by some existential issue to choose between the GOP and Trump. Since this group came into the Senate pre-Trump and are in no way beholden to the man, some of them might conceivably vote against the president. But that's a reach, as it is.

Last week, McConnell indicated he's leaning towards a short Senate impeachment trial where no witnesses will be called. This stand places McConnell squarely at odds with Trump and his voter base, which are in favor of a full Senate trial with witnesses. McConnell, however, noted that no decisions had been made on how the Senate trial will proceed.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) said a growing number of GOP senators want to simply let House Democrats make their case to impeach the president. Republicans will hear a rebuttal from Trump’s team. After this, the GOP senators will vote immediately on the articles of impeachment and Trump will be acquitted.

The chairman of the US House Judiciary Committee, Democrat Jerry Nadler, has called the impeachment case against President Donald Trump "rock solid"
The chairman of the US House Judiciary Committee, Democrat Jerry Nadler, has called the impeachment case against President Donald Trump "rock solid" AFP / Brendan Smialowski